城镇居民收入与旅游消费行为的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Income and the Tourism Consumption Behavior of the Urban Residents

作　　者：孙颖[1] Sun Ying(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Polytechnic University,Wuhu 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工程大学经济与管理学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2021年第10期21-24,共4页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

基　　金：安徽省高等学校省级质量工程项目教学研究重点项目(2018jyxm1310);安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2018CX111)。

摘　　要：选取1996—2017年我国城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇居民人均旅游花费、城镇居民出游率年度数据,采用OLS回归模型、Chow稳定性检验等分析城镇居民人均可支配收入与城镇居民人均旅游花费、城镇居民人均可支配收入与城镇居民出游率之间的关系,并采用多项式分布滞后模型探究变量间的滞后关系。数据分析结果显示:变量间的回归模型系数并不稳定,且存在时间滞后性。从长期来看,城镇居民人均可支配收入每增加1个单位,将使城镇居民人均旅游花费增加0.00726个单位,使城镇居民出游率增加0.01503个单位。在实证结果基础上,可采取激发城镇居民旅游消费意愿、提升旅游业服务品质、进行差异化营销等措施促进城镇居民旅游消费行为。This paper selected the annual data of urban residents’per capita disposable income,per capita tourism expenditure,and tourism rate from 1996 to 2017 to analyze the relation of the three variables using OLS regression model,and the Chow stability test.The analysis indicates that the coefficient of regression model among variables is not stale and having time lag.In the long run,every unit increase in the per capita disposable income of urban residents will increase the per capita tourism expenditure of urban residents by 0.00726 units and the tourism rate by 0.01503 units.Accordingly,we can take measures to stimulate the tourism consumption will of urban residents,improve the service quality of tourism,and carry out differentiated marketing to promote the tourism consumption behavior of urban residents.

关 键 词：旅游消费行为 出游率 城镇居民 PDL模型 

分 类 号：F590.8[经济管理—旅游管理]