公路工程项目组合施工进度风险防范策略  

Prevention Strategy of Highway Project Portfolio Construction Schedule Risk

作　　者：白礼彪[1] 张璐瑶 孙怡晨 杨琦[1] 秦选龙 BAI Li-biao;ZHANG Lu-yao;SUN Yi-chen;YANG Qi;QIN Xuan-long(School of Economics and Management,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,Shaanxi,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学运输工程学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2021年第9期203-214,共12页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72002018);陕西省创新能力支撑计划———青年科技新星项目(2020KJXX-054);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2020R028)。

摘　　要：为了降低公路工程施工进度风险,考虑风险事件的交互关系提出了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险防范策略。首先,通过公路工程建设文献资料梳理和专家筛选补充,构建了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险三级指标体系。然后,利用网络层次分析法解析了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险指标间的交互关系,运用Super Decisions软件确定了各级风险指标的权重。最后,通过系统动力学建立了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险水平评估模型,在验证模型的有效性后运用Vensim软件对施工进度风险水平进行模拟。在此基础上,为降低公路工程施工进度风险,综合考虑风险破坏和交互程度改进传统"概率-损失"风险矩阵,对不同风险防范策略实施后的管控效果进行仿真模拟,进而提出了相应的风险防范策略集。研究结果表明:风险间交互关系致使公路工程项目组合施工进度风险在整个施工阶段呈上升趋势,且施工阶段中后期风险上升趋势明显升高,有必要对风险进行控制;采取单一风险防范策略后总体施工进度风险降低[0.13%,10.12%],下降程度并不显著;采取组合风险防范策略后总体施工进度风险下降[10.45%,17.42%],显著度明显提高。该结果厘清了公路工程项目组合施工进度风险的交互关系,验证了风险防范策略的科学有效性,为解决公路工程项目组合施工进度的风险防范问题提供了依据。To reduce the risk in the aspect of highway project portfolio construction,this paper put forward strategies for highway project portfolio construction schedule risks considering the interactive relationships between risks.Firstly,a three-level indicator system of highway project portfolio construction schedule risks was established through literature review and supplement by experts.Secondly,the interactions between risk indicators were analyzed by using analytic network Process.The wights of risk indicators were determined with Super Decision software.Finally,the assessment model for highway project portfolio construction risks was established using system dynamics.After verification of the effectiveness of the model,the risk level of construction risk was simulated using Vensim software.On this basis,to reduce the schedule risk of highway project portfolio construction,this paper comprehensively considered the impact of the risks and the degree of risk interactions to improve the traditional“probability-loss”risk matrix.And the effectiveness of different strategies was stimulated,then a prevention strategy set was put forward.Results show that the interactions between risks can cause rise in schedule risks of highway project portfolio construction throughout construction phase,and it is necessary to control risks.After adopting single risk prevention strategies,the overall construction schedule risk is lower.However,the degree of the decline of the risk is not significant,only ranging from 0.13%to 10.12%.After adopting combined risk prevention strategies,the decline of construction schedule risk has significantly increased,ranging from 10.45%to 17.42%.The results clarify the interactions between highway project portfolio construction schedule risks,verify the effectiveness of the risk prevention strategies,and provide a basis for solving schedule risk prevention problems of the highway project portfolio construction.

关 键 词：道路工程 施工进度 系统动力学 项目组合 风险交互 防范策略 

分 类 号：U415.13[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]