“十四五”期间中国国产木材消耗量预测  

Forecast of China's Domestic Timber Consumption during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan

作　　者：杨梦 彭红军[1] 魏勇 YANG Meng;PENG Hongjun;WEI Yong(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2021年第6期620-627,共8页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家林业和草原局软科学项目(2019131032)。

摘　　要：基于2006-2019年中国木质林产品的统计数据,分别采用回归模型、自回归滑动平均模型以及简单移动平均法对“十四五”期间中国主要木质林产品的消费量、进口量、出口量进行预测;并结合原木当量折算法依次对进口原木及其他木质林产品折合木材量、出口原木及其他木质林产品折合木材量,国内木材供给量,木材总消费量进行推算。结果表明:“十四五”期间年均中国木材总消费量预计在5.12亿m^(3)~5.35亿m^(3)之间,年均国内木材供给量预计将达到2.87亿m^(3)~3.10亿m^(3),折合年需森林蓄积量3.82亿m^(3)~4.14亿m^(3),中国木材市场存在较大的木材供需缺口。因此,应合理制定年森林采伐限额,提高人工林种植质量和木材综合利用效率,以确保国内木质林产品行业的可持续发展。⑴Background--By predicting the demand for various wood products and domestic timber in China during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,it is of great practical significance to rationally formulate annual limit of total lumber amount during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan.⑵Methods--Based on the statistical data of wood products during 2006 to 2019,using Eviews software and based on regression models,Auto-regressive moving average model and simple moving average method,the consumption,the log equivalent conversion algorithm,import and export volume of main wood products and the total timber consumption in China were predicted during the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan.⑶Results--During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,domestic raw logs and imported logs,sawn timber,wood pulp and other raw materials are mainly used for the manufacture of plywood,fiberboard,particleboard and other man-made panels in the timber intermediate processing market.During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,the processing trade model of China's timber market ostensibly promoted the development of the wood product industry and increased the export value and import value of wood product trade,but it was still at the low end of the product value chain and failed to achieve high-quality development of wood products trade.During the period of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan,the average annual domestic wood supply was 222 million m^(3)to 238 million m^(3),equivalent to the annual demand for forest stock of 295 million m^(3)to 318 million m^(3),which exceeded 74 million m^(3)to 97 million m^(3)compared with the forest stock of annual limit of total lumber amount.During the period of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,the average annual total wood consumption in China is expected to be between 512 million m^(3)and 535 million m^(3),and the average annual domestic wood supply is expected to reach 287 million m^(3)to 310 million m^(3),which is equivalent to an annual demand for forest stock of 382 million

关 键 词：木质林产品 木材供需预测 原木当量折算系数 森林采伐限额 

分 类 号：F326.23[经济管理—产业经济]