基于冲击响应模型的江苏水资源特征及综合用水效率评价  

Characteristics of Water Resources and Evaluation of Comprehensive Water Use Efficiency in Jiangsu Province Based on Impact Response Model

作　　者：刘飞诗 胡腾腾 何晓静 李勋章 付梁其 潘磊 LIU Feishi;HU Tengteng;HE Xiaojing;LI Xunzhang;FU Liangqi;PAN Lei(Jiangsu Yuanhan Architectural Design Co.,Ltd.,Changzhou 213000,Jiangsu,China;Changzhou Jintan District Water Conservancy Construction Management Office,Changzhou 213200,Jiangsu,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau(Changzhou sub-bureau),Changzhou 213100,Jiangsu,China;Water Resources Management Service Center of Jintan District of Changzhou City,Changzhou 213200,Jiangsu,China;Jintan District Water Conservancy Planning Service Center in Changzhou City,Changzhou 213200,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏远瀚建筑设计有限公司,江苏常州213000 [2]常州市金坛区水利建设管理所,江苏常州213200 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局常州分局,江苏常州213100 [4]常州市金坛区水资源管理服务中心,江苏常州213200 [5]常州市金坛区水利规划服务中心,江苏常州213200

出　　处：《水力发电》2021年第11期4-8,56,共6页Water Power

摘　　要：为了评估江苏省节水型社会建设的成效性,并揭示水资源特征与综合用水效率相互作用的机制,采用向量自回归方法建立了冲击响应模型,选取了能反映江苏省水资源禀赋和农业发展的指标作为节水工程建设成效的影响因子;再以江苏省万元生产总值所需水资源量来表征江苏省综合用水效率,分析、评估江苏省综合用水效率受到资源因素的影响程度,以及资源因素受到节水工程的改善情况。结果显示,气温和干旱度这两个气候指标对综合用水效率的影响强度大,但是持续性弱;人均水资源量指标对综合用水效率的响应强度最大,而且响应持续时间也较长;人均耕地面积和人均用水量指标对综合用水效率产生稳定的、持久的响应。In order to evaluate the effectiveness of water-saving society construction in Jiangsu Province and reveal the interaction mechanism between water resources characteristics and comprehensive water use efficiency,the impact response model is established by using vector auto-regression method.The indicators that can reflect the endowment of water resources and the agricultural development of Jiangsu Province are selected as the influencing factors for the effectiveness evaluation of water-saving society construction,and the comprehensive water efficiency of Jiangsu Province is represented by the water resource utilization amount required by the GDP of per ten thousand RMB in Jiangsu Province.The influence degree of the resource factors on the comprehensive water use efficiency and the improvement of the resource factors by the water-saving projects are evaluated and analyzed respectively.The results show that,(a)two climate indicators of temperature and drought have a strong impact on the comprehensive water efficiency,but the persistence is weak;(b)the response intensity of the per-capita water resource amount to the comprehensive water efficiency is the largest,and the response duration is also longer;and(c)the per capita cultivated land area and per capita water consumption have a stable and lasting response to comprehensive water use efficiency.

关 键 词：评估 综合用水效率 水资源特征 冲击响应模型 江苏省 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程]