LNG动力船应急响应系统流程GSPN-MC仿真模型  

Simulation modeling on emergency response process for LNG-fueled vessel via GSPN-MC method

作　　者：胡甚平[1] 李圣媛 赵睿[1] 李帅召 王新雅 HU Shenping;LI Shengyuan;ZHAO Rui;LI Shuaizhao;WANG Xinya(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2021年第10期174-181,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB1600600);上海市2020年度科技创新行动计划软科学重点项目(20192108700)。

摘　　要：为解决液化天然气(LNG)动力船中出现的LNG燃料泄漏的风险问题,提出广义随机Petri网(GSPN)同构其马尔科夫链(MC)的方法,仿真LNG动力船燃料泄漏应急响应系统流程。首先,描述LNG动力船燃料泄漏风险,建立燃料泄漏应急响应系统流程图;然后,构建LNG燃料泄漏应急响应系统流程的GSPN模型及其同构的MC;最后,结合LNG泄漏应急演习中的操作流程,仿真分析应急响应流程,获取系统的稳定状态概率等应急响应主要效能。结果表明:应急响应的前期准备和LNG储罐泄漏程度判断环节容易出现堆积现象;事态判断及后期处置总结耗时相对较长,应为流程优化的重点。In order to eliminate risks of fuel leakage in LNG-fueled vessels,a GSPN isomorphism with its MC method was proposed to simulate response process for such leakage emergencies.Firstly,leakage risks of LNG-fueled vessels were described,and emergency response process flow was developed.Secondly,GSPN model of emergency response system process and its isomorphic MC were established.Finally,simulation analysis was carried out with LNG leakage response exercise as an example,and major performance parameters,like steady state probability of the system,were obtained.The results show that problems of information accumulations tend to appear in the stages of preliminary preparation and judgment on leakage degree of LNG storage tanks.Situation judgement and summary of subsequent disposal measures take a relatively long time,and thus should be the focus of process optimization.

关 键 词：液化天然气(LNG)动力船 应急响应 广义随机Petri网(GSPN) 马尔科夫链(MC) 仿真模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]