我国经济增长“中等收入陷阱”的识别及跨越路径——基于“集团收敛性”检验与TFP提升路径的跨国比较研究  

Escaping“Middle-income Trap”:Based on the Test of Convergence Club and the Cross-country Analysis on the TFP Promotion Path

作　　者：刘金全[1] 张运峰 王俏茹 Liu Jinquan;Zhang Yunfeng;Wang Qiaoru(Business School of Jilin University,Changchun 130021;School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院,长春130012 [3]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心 [4]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2021年第11期12-26,156,共16页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“健全目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系的理论与实践研究”(21ZDA042);国家社科基金重点项目“经济周期形态变异、子类经济周期划分、子类经济周期与经济周期关联机制研究”(19AJY005);国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济周期形态变异、经济周期成分分解与经济政策周期相依性的动态机制研究”(72073040);国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济新常态下经济增长的趋势性与收敛性研究”(71873042)

摘　　要：本文通过构建非线性时变因子模型,描述、分析和检验了包括中国在内的136个国家,在1980~2017年经济发展过程中出现的“集团收敛”情况。实证结果发现,“中等收入陷阱”在短期确实是经济发展过程中的“局部稳态”,但从长期来看则是非稳定状态,存在多种脱离“中等收入陷阱”的可能。在各种跨越条件中,全要素生产率的提升是各国向高收入水平收敛的关键所在。本文进一步通过技术前沿收敛模型,探索全要素生产率的提升路径,结果发现这一路径可分为三个阶段:在低收入水平阶段,可通过技术模仿提升TFP,实现第一阶段的“集团收敛”;在由低收入向中等收入水平跃升阶段,需在技术模仿的同时利用全球技术边界提升带来的技术溢出拉动TFP增长;在中等收入向高收入跃升阶段,需由外部驱动向自主创新驱动转型,提高自主创新能力。我国目前正处于经济发展的第三阶段,此时加大创新驱动力度和优化产业结构至关重要。By means of a nonlinear time-varying factor model, we first analyze the“club convergence” in 136 countries including China from 1980 to 2017, and then describe the“middle-income trap” from the perspective of convergence. The results show that the “middle-income trap” is indeed a “local steady state” in the short term, but it is unstable in the long term, and there are many possibilities to break away from it;only with the corresponding conditions can it successfully cross the trap, otherwise it can only converge to the middle income level, and the increase of total factor productivity is the key to convergence of countries to the high income level. In view of this, this paper further explores the improvement path of total factor productivity through the Technology Frontier Convergence Model, and finds that this path can be divided into three phases. In the low-income phase, TFP can be upgraded through technical imitation to achieve “club convergence” in the first stage. In the phase of the transition from low-income to middle-income, it is necessary to make use of technological imitation and technology spillovers brought by the improvement of global technology boundary to stimulate TFP. While in the phase of the transition from middle-income to high-income, it is necessary to improve the ability of independent innovation. As we can see that China is currently in the third stage of economic development, it is very important to strengthen innovation and optimize industrial structure。

关 键 词：经济增长机制 “中等收入陷阱” 经济增长收敛性 集团收敛性 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]