基于时空地理加权回归模型的浙江省碳排放时空格局及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province based on spatial-temporal geographic weighted regression model

作　　者：李泽坤 任丽燕[1,2,3] 马仁锋[1,2,3] 刘永强[1,2,3] 姚丹 LI Zekun;REN Liyan;MA Renfeng;LIU Yongqiang;YAO Dan(Institute of Geography and Urban-rural Planning,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Ningbo Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Collaborative Innovation Center,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Institute of East China Sea,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学人文地理与城乡规划研究所,浙江宁波315211 [2]宁波大学宁波陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心,浙江宁波315211 [3]宁波大学东海研究院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2021年第6期105-113,共9页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41601171);宁波市软科学项目(2017A10053).

摘　　要：测算并分析浙江省1995—2015年碳排放量的动态变化特征,通过时空地理加权回归模型分析各影响因素对碳排放总量影响的时空异质性.结果表明:(1)1995—2015年浙江省碳排放总量总体上呈上升趋势,年均增长率为6.69%;能源活动碳排放是浙江省碳排放的主要来源,工业碳排放是能源活动碳排放的主要来源;非能源活动碳排放是浙江省碳排放的次要来源,水泥生产和水稻种植是非能源活动碳排放的主要来源;(2)浙江省碳排放重心大致落在绍兴市西南部,浙江省碳排放重心经历了西北向—西北向—东南向—东向的转移;(3)各主成分因素对碳排放的影响方向和强度具有明显的时空异质性.In this study,the dynamic changes of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2015 in Zhejiang Province are calculated and analyzed.Also analyzed is the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the impact of various influencing factors on total carbon emissions through a GTWR model.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2015,the total carbon emission of Zhejiang Province shows an overall upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 6.69%.Carbon emission from energy activities proves to be the main source of carbon emission in Zhejiang Province,and industrial carbon emission is found to be the main source of carbon emission from energy activities.Non-energy activity carbon emissions act as the secondary source of carbon emission in Zhejiang Province.Cement production and rice cultivation turn out to be the main source of non-energy activity carbon emissions;(2)The carbon emission center of Zhejiang Province is located roughly in the southwest of Shaoxing City.The center is noted for having been shifting in order of from northwest to northwest to southeast to east;(3)The direction and intensity of the main component factors on carbon emissions exhibit obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity.

关 键 词：碳排放 重心转移 时空地理加权回归模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]