考虑风险的国际集装箱多式联运路径选择研究  

Research on the route selection of international container multimodal transportation considering risk

作　　者：冯芬玲[1] 孔祥光 吴庆芳 FENG Fenling;KONG Xiangguang;WU Qingfang(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2021年第10期2761-2768,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BJY169)。

摘　　要：研究考虑风险的国际集装箱多式联运路径选择问题,目的是为国际集装箱运输提供既能保证经济效益又能降低运输风险的路径参考。通过采用突变级数法对国际集装箱多式联运风险进行量化评估,进而将风险纳入路径选择的考虑因素中来,构建以最小化运输费用、运输时间、综合能耗、运输风险为目标的国际集装箱多式联运路径选择模型,并以长沙-柏林为算例进行分析。研究结果表明:多目标优化方案相比单目标优化能够有效地降低运输费用,缩短运输时间,减少综合能耗,并降低运输风险,实现国际集装箱多式联运经济与安全水平的综合最优;同时,也为不同运输需求及情景下的国际集装箱多式联运路径选择提供了一定的参考依据。Route selection of international container multimodal transport considering risks has been studied,in order to provide a route reference for international container transport that can ensure economic benefits and reduce transport risks.The catastrophe progression method was used to quantify the risks of international container multimodal transportation.Then a route selection model of international container multimodal transportation that aimed to minimize transportation costs,transportation time,comprehensive energy consumption and transportation risks was built.Changsha-Berlin was selected as an example to test the model.The results show that the multi-objective optimization scheme can effectively achieve the comprehensive optimization of the economic and safety level compared with the single-objective optimization.And it also provided reference for the route selection of international container multimodal transport for different transportation needs.

关 键 词：路径选择 多目标规划 运输风险 多式联运 

分 类 号：U15[交通运输工程]