国民储蓄率下降会引发系统性金融风险吗?  

Will the Decline of the National Savings Rate Lead to Systemic Financial Risks?

作　　者：杨天宇[1] 朱光 Yang Tianyu;Zhu Guang(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2021年第10期26-35,共10页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目“逆全球化动向与国际经贸规则重构的中国方案研究”(17ZDA097)资助。

摘　　要：国际经验表明,低储蓄率与高杠杆率的组合极易引发系统性金融风险。本文构建了包括国民储蓄率、内外债杠杆率和系统性金融风险的统一分析框架,提出了解释国民储蓄率与系统性金融风险之间关系的三个假说,并利用跨国面板数据进行了实证分析。结果发现,第一,高内债杠杆率下,国民储蓄率下降引发系统性金融风险的概率较低;高外债杠杆率下,国民储蓄率下降引发系统性金融风险的概率较高。第二,在国民储蓄率下降的情况下,国际资本净流入同时增加了发展中经济体和发达经济体发生系统性金融风险的概率,经济增长乏力增加了发达经济体发生系统性金融风险的概率。第三,高外债杠杆率引致发展中经济体系统性金融风险的概率比发达经济体更高。由于自2008年开始,中国也出现了国民储蓄率下降的情况,本文认为,中国应该努力保持国际收支平衡,通过严防外债杠杆率上升,更好地守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。International experience shows that the combination of low savings rate and high leverage ratio can easily lead to systemic financial risks. In this paper, leverage ratio is divided into domestic debt leverage ratio and external debt leverage ratio, and a unified analytical framework including national savings rate, domestic debt leverage ratio, external debt leverage ratio and systemic financial risk is constructed. Through theoretical analysis, the following hypotheses are proposed.Firstly, with high domestic debt leverage ratio, the probability of systemic financial risk caused by the decline of national savings rate is low;with high external debt leverage ratio, the probability of systemic financial risk caused by the decline of national savings rate is higher. Secondly, when the national savings rate declines, the net inflow of international capital increases the probability of systemic financial risk in both developing and developed economies, and the sluggish economic growth increases the probability of systemic financial risk in developed economies. Thirdly, the probability of systemic financial risk caused by high external debt leverage in developing economies is higher than that in developed economies.Based on the cross-country data from databases such as the World Bank, this paper uses Probit and Logit models to test the above hypotheses, and the regression results support the three hypotheses proposed in this paper. Based on the above conclusions, this paper argues that we should correctly understand China’s current high leverage rate and declining national savings rate. The combination of high external debt leverage ratio and low savings rate are more likely to cause systemic financial risks, and efforts should be made to maintain the balance of payments and strictly prevent the rise of external debt leverage ratio, thus keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks. In addition, China should also change the mode of economic growth and drive economic growth more through consumption rather

关 键 词：国民储蓄率 外债杠杆率 系统性金融风险 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] F047