中小城市加油站需求预测方法研究--以南京市江宁区为例  

Research on Demand Forecasting Methods of Gas Station in Small and Medium-sized Cities--Taking Jiangning District of Nanjing City as an Example

作　　者：王佳佳 朱莺莺 苑惠丽[1] Wang Jiajia;Zhu Yingying;Yuan Huili(School of Civil Engineering,Jingling Institute of Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]金陵科技学院建筑工程学院,江苏南京211169

出　　处：《绿色科技》2021年第20期279-282,287,共5页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金青年基金项目(编号:BK20170117);金陵科技学院2020年校级“科教融合”项目(编号:城市林地fAPAR遥感估算研究)。

摘　　要：随着国民经济和汽车工业的迅猛发展以及成品油零售市场的放开,加油站数量快速增长。为规范加油设施建设,采用弹性系数法、相关性预测方法及依据规划推算法进行了规划年份的加油站数量预测。以南京市江宁区加油站预测为例,三种方法的计算结果依次为82~94座、80~91座和77~87座,综合分析得到2030年加油站数量为80~90座,并利用已有数据验证了该方法的有效性。此结果可为江宁区加油站规划和布局提供技术支撑和数量指导,同时也可对其它中小城市的加油站数量的预测提供参考。With the development of national economy and automobile industry as well as the opening of retail market of refined oil,the amount of gas stations is growing fast and disorderly due to the lack of scientific prediction.To standardize the construction of refueling facilities,the elasticity coefficient method,the correlation prediction method and the planning calculation method are used to predict the amount of refueling stations of the target year.Taking the prediction of gas stations in Jiangning District,Nanjing City as an example,the calculation results of the three methods are 82-94,80-91 and 77-87,respectively.The comprehensive analysis shows that the number of gas stations in 2030 is 80-90,and the validity of the method is verified by the available data.The result provides technical support and quantitative guidance for the planning and layout of gas stations in Jiangning District.At the same time,it also has the important reference and guiding significance for the prediction of the number of gas stations in other small and medium-sized cities.

关 键 词：中小城市 加油站 需求预测 

分 类 号：U473.8[机械工程—车辆工程]