中国双向直接投资增长质量效应分解与指数测度——来自扩展IDP模型的中国实证  

Mass Effect Decomposition and Index Measurement of Two-way Direct Investment Growth in China——An Empirical Study of China Based on Extended IDP Model

作　　者：庞磊[1] 朱彤[2] PANG Lei;ZHU Tong(School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650000,Yunnan,China;School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650000 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津市300071

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2021年第11期120-128,共9页China Business and Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国—中南半岛双向直接投资联动驱动产业动能转换实现机制研究”(20BJL050)。

摘　　要：利用联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)数据库1979—2020年以及历年对外直接投资统计公报、各省(区、市)统计年鉴中国双向直接投资省际层面的面板数据,采用扩展的投资发展路径(IDP)模型以及门槛效应模型方法,构建中国外商直接投资(FDI)与对外直接投资(OFDI)联动发展的双向直接投资指数(TDI),进行中国双向直接投资增长质量效应分解与指数测度。结果表明,中国双向直接投资受到贸易开放度、经济结构、经济发展水平、技术水平、区域沿边的正向推动和环境规制的抑制;双向直接投资增长存在门槛效应,由"低门槛"向"高门槛"迈进,增长方式呈现由"高速度"向"高质量"转变的态势,双向直接投资增长效应存在区域差异,中部地区发展稳健,西南地区、西北地区呈现与东部地区、东北地区相似的发展态势。此外,通过对比分析"一带一路"倡议提出前后中国双向直接投资增长效应,发现"一带一路"倡议有效地推动了我国双向直接投资的发展进程。Based on the database of UNCTA from 1979 to 2020 and the historical data from statistics communique,and the provincial panel data of China’s two-way direct investment from 1979 to 2020,the authors adopt the IDP model and threshold method to formulate the two-way direct investment index(TDI),which is the result of the interactive development of China’s foreign direct investment(FDI) and outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),and carry out the quality effect decomposition and index measurement of two-way direct investment growth in China. It is found that:China’s two-way direct investment is positively affected by such factors as trade openness,economic structure,economic development level,technological level and area border,and restrained by environmental regulation;at the same time,there exists the threshold effect in China’s two-way direct investment,which is from the "covenant-lite" to the "high threshold",and from "high speed" to "high quality" growth;and there are regional differences in the growth effect of two-way direct investment,namely the growth is steady in the central region,while the growth in the southwest and northwest regions show similar trends with that in the east and northeast regions. In addition,comparing the growth effect before and after the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),we can find that the BRI effectively promotes the development process of two-way direct investment in China.

关 键 词：经济增长 双向直接投资质量 技术创新 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]