外固定感染风险预测模型预测能力的前瞻性研究  

Predictive ability of infection risk prediction model for external fixation:a prospective study

作　　者：余文娟 杨静华[2] 刘树霞[2] 郭凡依 彭小伟[2] 陈雅琴 翟惠敏[1] 马玥[1] YU Wenjuan;YANG Jinghua;LIU Shuxia;GUO Fanyi;PENG Xiaowei;CHEN Yaqin;ZHAI Huimin;MA Yue(Southern Medical University,Guangdong 510440 China)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学,广东510440 [2]南方医科大学南方医院

出　　处：《护理研究》2021年第21期3839-3845,共7页Chinese Nursing Research

基　　金：南方医科大学青年科技人员培育项目,编号:G618329146。

摘　　要：目的:依据外固定感染风险预测模型预测病人感染发生情况,通过追踪病人感染实际发生情况验证和评价模型。方法:纳入2019年6月—12月广州市某三级甲等医院行骨科外固定手术的300例病人为建模组。电话随访追踪病人半年,将完成半年随访的病人设为验证组,比较预测感染情况与实际感染情况,对模型进行验证。结果:最终纳入验证组病人106例,模型预测感染率为26.4%,实际感染率为33.0%。建模组工作者受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.808,验证组AUC为0.704,O/E=1.25,Hosmer⁃Lemeshow检验χ^(2)值为2.519,P=0.340;当截断值为0.373时,约登指数最大值为0.287。结论:外固定感染风险预测模型的预测能力较好,有助于筛选外固定术后易发生感染的高危病人。Objective:The infection situation of patients was predicted according to infection risk prediction model for external fixation,and then the model was verified and evaluated by tracking the actual infection situation of patients.Methods:A total of 300 patients,who underwent external bone fixation in a tertiary grade A hospital in Guangzhou from June to December 2019,were included as the modeling group.Patients were followed up by telephone for six months.And those who completed the six months were assigned to the validation group.The model was validated by comparing the predicted infection situation with the actual infection situation.Results:Finally,106 patients were included in the validation group.The predicted infection rate was 26.4%,and the actual infection rate was 33.0%.The AUC of the modeling group was 0.808,and AUC of the validation group was 0.704,O/E=1.25.The Hosmer and Lemeshow test showed that,χ^(2)=2.519,P=0.340.When the cutoff value was 0.373,the maximum value of the Youden index was 0.287.Conclusion:The predictive ability of infection risk prediction model for external fixation was good,which could be helpful for screening high⁃risk patients who are prone to infection after external fixation.

关 键 词：感染 风险 影响因素 预测 外固定 前瞻性研究 调查研究 

分 类 号：R473.6[医药卫生—护理学]