基于不同开发阶段的深层油气田经济评价方法  

Economic evaluation method of deep oil and gas fields based on different development stages

作　　者：龙隆 陈恭洋 印森林 裴潇[2] 彭少杰 郭秋麟[3] LONG Long;CHEN Gongyang;YIN Senlin;PEI Xiao;PENG Shaojie;GUO Qiulin(Institute of Mud Logging Technology and Engineering,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,Hubei;Economics and Management School,Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,Hubei;Institute of Petroleum Resources Planning,Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]长江大学录井技术与工程研究院,湖北荆州434023 [2]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023 [3]中国石油勘探开发研究院油气资源规划研究所,北京100083

出　　处：《长江大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期38-47,共10页Journal of Yangtze University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技重大专项“深层油气资源经济评价方法与评价标准”(2017ZX05008-006-004-001);国家自然科学基金项目“非连续油相在多孔介质中的启动与运移机理研究”(51904033)。

摘　　要：近年来我国石油和天然气对外依存度屡创新高,常规勘探深度难以寻找接替领域,深层油气资源的勘探开发能有效缓解能源紧张,保证国家能源安全。深层油气资源由于具有勘探开发技术难度大、投资规模大、风险高等特点,在实施勘探开发前需对其经济可行性进行评估,借以达到降低投资风险,提高经济效益的目的。探索了深层油气资源勘探开发过程中的技术及经济因素,并将风险理念贯穿于资源评价的全过程,根据不同勘探开发程度,分别建立了适用于低勘探区的“基于多指标综合评分的资源经济性评价法”和适用于高勘探区的“基于蒙特卡洛模拟的贴现现金流模型”。通过对我国12个低勘探区和5个高勘探区的深层油气田的相关数据进行测试,验证了模型的可行性,实现了深层油气资源的风险量化经济评价,并针对不同勘探开发阶段的深层油气资源采用不同的方法,探索了勘探开发一体化评价新模式。In recent years,China’s dependence on foreign oil and natural gas has reached new heights repeatedly,and it is difficult to find alternative areas for conventional exploration depth.The exploration and development of deep oil and gas resources can effectively alleviate the energy shortage and ensure national energy security.Deep oil and gas resources have the characteristics of difficult exploration and development technology,large investment scale and high risk.Therefore,before the implementation of exploration and development,it is necessary to evaluate its economic feasibility,so as to reduce investment risk and improve economic benefits.This paper explored the technical and economic factors in the process of exploration and development of deep oil and gas resources,and applied the concept of risk to the whole process of resource evaluation.According to different degrees of exploration and development,the“resource economic evaluation method based on multi-index comprehensive scoring”and the“discounted cash flow model based on Monte Carlo simulation”were established respectively for low exploration areas and high exploration areas.By testing the relevant data of deep oil and gas fields in 12 low exploration areas and 5 high exploration areas in China,the feasibility of the model was verified,and the quantitative economic evaluation of the risk of deep oil and gas resources was realized.Different methods were adopted for deep oil and gas resources in different exploration and development stages,and a new integrated evaluation model of exploration and development was explored.

关 键 词：深层油气资源 经济评价 多指标 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TE-9[石油与天然气工程]