基于多元线性回归的开发井绝对无阻流量预测  

Prediction of absolute open flow of development wells based on multiple linear regression

作　　者：周敏[1] 王涵[1] 张娜[1] 庞宇来[1] 陈黎[1] 欧阳沐鲲 张伟[1] ZHOU Min;WANG Han;ZHANG Na;PANG Yulai;CHEN Li;OUYANG Mukun;ZHANG Wei(Chongqing Gas District,Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,PetroChina,Chongqing 400021;Chongqing Natural Gas Storage and Transportation Co.Ltd.,Chongqing 400021)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田分公司重庆气矿地质研究所,重庆400021 [2]重庆天然气储运有限公司,重庆400021

出　　处：《长江大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期48-55,共8页Journal of Yangtze University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：中国石油科技重大专项“四川盆地老区气田稳产保效关键技术研究与应用”(2016E-0607);中国石油西南油气田分公司科研项目“大猫坪区块长兴组气藏描述及开发技术对策研究”(20200303-14)。

摘　　要：对于新钻开发井,气井绝对无阻流量的大小是决定新钻井能否实施的关键指标,所以准确、快捷地预测气井绝对无阻流量对于气藏储量动用、提高采收率具有重要意义。目前绝对无阻流量是通过气井投产后采用稳定试井获得,对于未钻的井现场多数采用类比法,但精度低,影响钻井决策。针对绝对无阻流量预测的问题,首先开展了绝对无阻流量影响因素的渗流理论分析以及与实际生产动态特征的相关性分析,以此为基础,利用多元线性回归方法开展了绝对无阻流量与各地质参数的定量关系研究,建立了新钻开发井绝对无阻流量与不同参数的预测模型,并对不同模型进行了统计学检验以及实例检验。结果表明,影响绝对无阻流量的主要因素主要有地层系数(kh)、地层压力(pe)、孔隙度(Φ)、动态储量等,各因变量之间不存在共线性,建立的4种模型中以kh、pe两个参数建立的预测模型在对新钻开发井的实际预测中精度较高,预测模型中需要的参数kh、pe在现场生产中也容易获得,计算方法简单快捷,解决了新钻开发井快速预测问题,为新钻开发井是否实施提供了依据,因此,该方法对气藏打开发井、特别是低渗透气藏后期补打开发井的决策中具有一定的实践意义。For newly drilled development wells,the absolute open flow(AOF)of gas wells is a key indicator to determine whether a newly drilled well can be implemented.Therefore,it is a great significance for analyzing reservoir reserveutilization and improving recovery ratio to predict AOF accurately and quickly.AOF is currently obtained by steady well testing after a gas well is put into production.For undrilled wells,the analogy method is mostly used,but theaccuracy is low and affects drilling decisions.To solve the problem of AOF prediction,the seepage theory analysis of the factors influencing AOF and the correlation analysis with the actual production dynamic characteristics werecarried out first.Based on this,the study on the quantitative relationship between AOF and geological parameters was then carried out using multiple linear regression method,and prediction models of AOF and different parameters for newly drilled development wells were established.Statistical tests and example tests were also applied for allmodels.The results show that the major factors influencing AOF mainly include formation value(kh),formation pressure(pe),porosity(Φ),dynamic reserves,etc.,and there is no collinearity between the dependent variables.Among the four prediction models established,the model with dependent variables of kh and pe has higher accuracy in theactual prediction of newly drilled development wells,and the parameters kh and pe needed in the prediction model are easy to obtain in field production.The calculation method is simple and quick,which could solve the problem of rapid prediction of newly drilled development wells and provide a basis for whether newly drilled development wells are implemented or not.Therefore,this method has a certain practical significance for drilled development gas wells,especially with low permeability reservoirs.

关 键 词：绝对无阻流量 多元线性回归 数学地质 钻井决策 开发井 

分 类 号：TE32[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]