反恐政策威慑及其反弹效应的机理——基于印度尼西亚的案例  

Deterrence and Backlash Effect Mechanisms of Counterterrorism Policies based on Indonesia Cases

作　　者：廖伟聪 佘硕[1] LIAO Wei-cong;SHE Shuo

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《四川警察学院学报》2021年第5期29-37,共9页Journal of Sichuan Police College

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国与东盟反恐合作治理机制研究”(18BZZ046)。

摘　　要：恐怖主义威胁既来自实施暴力袭击的恐怖组织,也来自其他的“潜在恐怖分子”。强硬的反恐政策主要是为防患和制裁少数极端恐怖主义分子而制定的,被广泛当作威慑恐怖分子而降低恐怖风险的有力政策工具,却忽略了其可能引起潜在恐怖分子的反弹。在印度尼西亚,一些宗教极端主义者极易将强硬反恐政策的压力解读为对穆斯林群体的压制,因此,印度尼西亚反恐实践对于本研究具有样本意义。构建反恐主体与对象的互动博弈行为模型,有助于分析政府强硬反恐政策的实际效果。研究发现:政府的强硬反恐可以导致恐怖活动动员的减少(威慑效应)或增加(反弹效应),这取决于安全收益、经济外部性和宗教极端思想等恐怖意识形态的内生关系。这种对反恐效果的内生描述跳出了西方传统语境中反恐研究的局限,拓展了现有反恐理论的研究外延,可为受恐怖主义威胁的相关国家完善和优化自身反恐政策提供一个新的选择路径。The threat of terrorism emanates from the terrorist organizations that carry out violent attacks as well as all potential terrorists.Tough counterterrorism policies primarily designed to prevent and sanction a small number of extremist terrorists are widely used as a powerful policy tool to deter terrorists and reduce terrorist risk,while their negative backlash effects they may have on potential extremist terrorists are always ignored.In Indonesia,some religious extremists are highly prone to interpret the pressure of tough counterterrorism policies as a suppression on the Muslim community,thus Indonesian counterterrorism practices are of sample significance for this study.It is helpful to analyze the actual effects of the counterterrorism policies with an interactive game behavior model including the Indonesian government,terrorist organizations,and potential terrorists.Results show that Indonesia tough counterterrorism policies would lead to either a decrease(deterrence effect)or an increase(backlash effect)in terrorist mobilization,depending on the endogenous relationship between security gains,economic externalities,and terrorist ideologies.The endogenous description of counterterrorism effects goes beyond the limitations of counterterrorism research in traditional Western contexts,expands the research outreach of existing counterterrorism theories,and provides a new alternative path for relevant countries threatened by terrorism to improve and optimize their own counterterrorism policies.

关 键 词：反恐政策 印度尼西亚 威慑效应 反弹效应 偏好 

分 类 号：D035.3[政治法律—政治学]