特大城市边缘区乡镇土地利用变化的多情景模拟——以武汉市走马岭街道为例  

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change of Towns in Megalopolis Fringe: Taking Zoumaling Street in Wuhan as an Example

作　　者：杨禹村 Yang Yucun

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学建筑与城市规划学院

出　　处：《华中建筑》2021年第11期124-128,共5页Huazhong Architecture

摘　　要：土地利用变化的模拟能有效支撑特大城市边缘区乡镇国土空间规划决策。基于武汉市走马岭街道土地利用的历史数据,综合应用Markov与CLUE-S模型对未来土地利用变化进行历史趋势、耕地保护、生态保护三种发展情景的模拟,认知该区域未来的空间发展趋势,制定土地利用优化建议。结论如下:(1)各情景下建设用地的扩张均为土地利用变化的核心内容;(2)耕地与水体向建设用地的转化为土地利用主要变化方式;(3)未来新增建设用地集中在工业园区并临近主要交通;(4)基于模拟结果从空间格局优化和土地利用保护两个方面提出具体建议。The simulation of land use change can effectively support the decision-making of national spatial planning in megacities fringe.Based on the historical data of land use in Zoumaling street in Wuhan, Markov and CLUE-S models are used to simulate the future land use change under the scenarios of historical trend, cultivated land conservation and ecological protection, we recognize the trend of the spatial development in future, and make suggestions on land use optimization. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The expansion of construction land is the key content of land use change under each scenario.(2)The transformation of cultivated land and water to construction land is the main form of land use change.(3)The newly added construction land is concentrated in the industrial park and close to the main traffic.(4)Based on the simulation results, we put forward specific suggestions from two aspects of spatial pattern optimization and land use protection.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 城市边缘区乡镇 多情景模拟 CLUE-S模型 MARKOV模型 

分 类 号：TU982.29[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]