不同减排政策下碳税征收的影响及政策选择——基于碳达峰、碳中和目标的分析  

Influence of Different Emission Reduction Policies on Carbon Emission Tax:Analysis Based on Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutral Targets

作　　者：尹伟华[1] YIN Wei-hua(Economic Forecasting Department,State Information Center,Beijing 100045,China)

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2021年第5期16-26,共11页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：全国统计科学研究项目(2020LY087);世界银行“中国经济改革促进与能力加强项目”(TCC6)。

摘　　要："30·60"碳排放目标日益成为我国经济发展的硬约束。利用GTAP-E模型,设置发达经济体仅对自身征收碳税、发达经济体对自身征收碳税并对中国征收碳关税、发达经济体与中国征收同等碳税以及发达经济体与中国征收差异化碳税四种政策情景,分析不同减排政策下各经济体的宏观经济、居民福利和碳排放影响,据此探讨中国主动采取成本公平性原则的差异化碳税政策应对发达经济体碳关税威胁的可行性。研究表明,发达经济体征收碳关税,在减少碳排放和防止碳泄漏方面作用非常有限,容易造成"双损"局面,不是一种有效的减排政策;发达经济体与中国征收同等碳税,造成中国实际GDP、居民福利大幅下降,经济持续衰退,不能有效应对发达经济体碳关税威胁;发达经济体与中国征收差异化碳税,会使全球碳排放量大幅下降,且中国实际GDP、居民福利下降幅度得到有效控制,因此是应对发达经济体碳关税威胁的有效政策。"30.60"carbon dioxide emission target has increasingly become a hard constraint on China’s economic development.By setting four policy scenarios that comprise of the developed economies levying domestic carbon tax,the developed economies levying domestic carbon tax and carbon tariffs of imported products from China,the developed economies and China levying the same carbon tax and the differentiated carbon tax policy implemented in China and the developed economies,the paper analyzes the impact of the macro economy,the welfare of the residents and carbon emissions under four policy scenarios using GTAP-E model,then discusses whether the action that China will take the initiative to reduce dioxide emissions on the cost fairness principle can be a solution to the threat of carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat in the developed economies.The results show that carbon tariffs are limited in reducing carbon emissions and preventing carbon leakage and easy to cause a"double loss"situation,which is not an effective emission reduction policy;the developed economies and China levying the same carbon tax result in a substantial decline in China’s real GDP and social welfare,which cannot effectively cope with the threat of carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat in the developed economies;the differentiated carbon tax policy implemented in China and the developed economies which cause the global carbon emissions falling sharply and China’s real GDP and social welfare declining gently,can be the choice of tackling carbon taxes and carbon tariffs threat.

关 键 词：碳税 碳关税 隐含碳排放 经济环境 碳排放 发达经济体 成本公平性原则 GTAP-E模型 居民福利 

分 类 号：F810.42[经济管理—财政学]