对外贸易依存度与农业经济增长--基于新疆地州面板数据的实证分析  

Ratio of Dependence on Foreign Trade and Agricultural Economic Growth--An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-regional Panel Data of Xinjiang

作　　者：奥斯曼·玉散 OSMAN Yusan

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐职业大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《经济论坛》2021年第10期52-60,共9页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新疆南疆农牧业产业发展中的农牧民合作组织研究”(15BMZ082)。

摘　　要：本文采用1996—2019年的新疆地际面板数据,使用了面板数据误差模型和面板数据向量自回归模型对新疆农业增长速度和新疆对外贸易依存度的长短期和动态关系进行了详细的实证分析,得出了如下结论:新疆农业总产出增长速度和新疆对外贸易依存度之间存在长期协整关系,并且两者的长期均衡关系表现为相互促进;新疆对外贸易依存度有误差修正机制;其短期波动受到农业产出增长速度波动的影响,新疆农业总产出增长速度不存在误差修正机制,其短期波动不受到新疆对外贸易依存度的波动的影响;从长期来分析新疆农业产出增长速度波动被对外贸易依存度的解释力度非常小而且比较稳定,而新疆农业增长速度对新疆对外贸易依存度的解释力度随着时间的推移增加;新疆对外贸易依存度对农业总产出的冲击为正,而相反的冲击效应为负。Based on the inter-regional panel data of Xinjiang from 1996 to 2019,this paper uses the panel data error model and panel data auto vector autoregressive model to conduct a detailed empirical analysis of the short and long-term and dynamic relationship between Xinjiang’s agricultural growth rate and ratio of Xinjiang’s dependence on foreign trade,and draws the following conclusions:There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the growth rate of Xinjiang’s total agricultural output and Xinjiang’s foreign trade dependence,and the long-term equilibrium relationship of the two is mutual promotion;ratio of Xinjiang’s dependence on foreign trade has error correction mechanism,and its short-term fluctuation is affected by the fluctuation of agricultural output growth rate;there is no error correction mechanism in the growth rate of Xinjiang’s agricultural total output,and its short-term fluctuation is not affected by the fluctuation of ratio of Xinjiang’s dependence on foreign trade;the long-term analysis shows that the fluctuation of agricultural output growth rate in Xinjiang is very little explained by ratio of dependence on foreign trade,and relatively stable,while the explanation of Xinjiang’s agricultural growth rate to ratio of Xinjiang’s dependence on foreign trade grows with the passage of time;the impact of ratio of Xinjiang’s dependence on foreign trade on the total agricultural output is positive,while the opposite impact effect is negative.

关 键 词：农业经济增长 对外贸易依存度 面板数据误差修正模型 面板数据自向量回归模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F752.8F327