内蒙古自治区生态承载力历史演化及预测  

Historical evolution and prediction of ecological carrying capacity in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

作　　者：王路[2] 白晶晶 郑春丽[1] WANG Lu;BAI Jingjing;ZHENG Chunli(School of Energy and Environment,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China;Key Laboratory of Integrated Exploitation of Bayan Obo Multi-Metal Resources,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学能源与环境学院,包头014010 [2]内蒙古科技大学白云鄂博矿多金属资源综合利用省部共建国家重点实验室,包头014010

出　　处：《生态科学》2021年第5期155-163,共9页Ecological Science

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2019;2020);内蒙古科技成果转化专项项目(2019 C6-062);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1802904);国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC41561094、NSFC41867061、NSFC42061049);内蒙古自治区重大基础研究开放课题资助(0406091701)。

摘　　要：论文选取中国重要的生态屏障内蒙古自治区为研究对象,通过收集研究区2010-2018年生态、环境和社会经济各类指标数据,建立生态承载力三维评价模型,采用主、客观综合赋权法对模型中的指标进行赋权,计算研究区生态承载力现状及对其变化敏感的指标,并预测未来发展趋势,为保护我国北疆的生态环境安全提供科学依据和数据支撑。研究结果表明:影响研究区生态承载力的主要指标为人均水资源量和森林覆盖率,研究区整体生态承载力呈逐渐上升趋势,但短期仍处于中低水平,需加强生态、环境与社会经济的互相协调与可持续发展。未来,研究区生态承载力将逐渐增高,增长速率加快,对经济和社会的发展更具包容性。This paper selects Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,an important ecological barrier in China as the study object.Through collecting the data of ecological,environmental and socio-economic indicators of the study area from 2010 to 2018,we established a three-dimensional evaluation model of ecological carrying capacity.The subjective and objective comprehensive weighting methods were used to weight the indicators in the model,calculate the current situation of ecological carrying capacity of the study area and the indicators sensitive,and predict the development trend.We provide scientific method and data support for protecting ecological environment security of Northern Frontier of China.The results show that the main indicators affecting the ecological carrying capacity of the study area are the per capita water resources and the forest coverage rate.The total ecological carrying capacity of the study area is gradually increasing,but it is still at a medium-low level in the short period.It is necessary to strengthen the coordination and sustainable development of ecology,environment and social economy.In the future,the ecological carrying capacity of the study area will gradually increase;the growth rate will accelerate;the economic and social development will be more inclusive.

关 键 词：生态承载力 三维评价模型 马尔科夫链 灰色预测模型 内蒙古 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]