半干旱河谷型城市兰州旅游产业与文化产业融合协调发展研究  

System dynamics simulation of the integrated and coordinated development of tourism industry and cultural industry in Lanzhou City

作　　者：杨秀平[1] 刘利利 贾云婷 李亚兵[1] 翁钢民[2] 侯玉君[1] YANG Xiuping;LIU Lili;JIA Yunting;LI Yabing;WENG Gangmin;HOU Yujun(School of Economy and Management,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China;School of Economy and Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066040,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学经济管理学院,兰州730050 [2]燕山大学经济管理学院,秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《生态科学》2021年第5期206-214,共9页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学地区基金项目“区域城市旅游环境系统韧性的理论、方法与应用研究”(41961020);国家自然科学青年基金项目“核心主体需求视角下区域旅游环境承载力研究”(41501597);教育部“春晖计划”合作科研项目“中国西北丝绸之路旅游带城市旅游承载压力转移研究”(GS2019002);甘肃省人文社会科学项目“甘肃发展的阶段性特征与高质量发展研究”(20ZZ20);甘肃省自然科学基金“区域文化和旅游协调发展的机理、测度与实证研究”(20JR10RA183);兰州理工大学博士基金项目资助;兰州理工大学红柳一流学科扶持方向“管理决策理论、方法与应用”建设项目;兰州理工大学科研发展引导基金资助计划“区域旅游经济包容性发展研究:基于多主体和谐共生的视阈”。

摘　　要：文章通过分析旅游产业与文化产业的融合机理,借鉴已有的融合理论研究成果,构建旅游产业与文化产业融合协调的评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定权重并构建其融合协调发展模型。以半干旱河谷型城市兰州市为例,对旅游产业与文化产业的综合发展水平和融合协调关系进行测评,借助Vensim PLE软件构建旅游产业与文化产业融合协调发展的系统动力学模型进行情景模拟和路径选择分析。研究结果表明:兰州市旅游产业与文化产业综合发展水平呈上升趋势,融合协调度也在不断提升,2008—2010年旅游产业发展滞后、2011—2014年实现同步发展、2015—2017年文化产业发展滞后。虽然文化产业发展滞后,但旅游产业与文化产业综合协调指数在不断提升,旅游产业与文化产业融合协调度处在良好协调状态。运用系统动力学模型进行现状延续、资源融合、市场融合、机构融合四种不同的路径情景模拟,仿真结果显示资源融合的路径更好。综上,政府要加大对旅游产业资源和文化产业资源的挖掘力度、提高资源融合效率,以期推进半干旱河谷型城市兰州市旅游产业与文化产业的发展。By analyzing the integrated mechanism of tourism industry and cultural industry and drawing on the existing research results of integration theory,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of integrated and coordinated degree of tourism industry and cultural industry,and uses entropy method to determine the weight and builds its integrated and coordinated development model.Taking Lanzhou City,a semi-arid river valley city,as an example,this paper evaluates the comprehensive development level and integration-coordination relationship between tourism industry and cultural industry,then constructs the system dynamics model of the integrated and coordinated development of tourism industry and cultural industry to carry out scenario simulation and path selection analysis with the Vensim PLE software.The research results show that the comprehensive development level of tourism industry and cultural industry in Lanzhou is on the rise,and the integrated and coordinated degree is also on the rise.The results show that the development of tourism industry lagged behind in 2008-2010,achieved synchronous development in 2011-2014,and cultural industry lagged behind in 2015-2017.Although the development of cultural industry lagged behind,the comprehensive coordinated index of tourism industry and cultural industry was constantly improving;the integrated and coordinated degree of tourism industry and cultural industry was in a good coordinated state.Using the system dynamics model to simulate the scenarios,this paper analyzes four different paths of continuation situation,resource integration,market integration and institutional integration.The results show that the path of resource integration is better.To sum up,the government should strengthen the mining of tourism industry resources and cultural industry resources,improve the efficiency of resource integration,in order to promote the development of tourism industry and cultural industry in Lanzhou city,a semi-arid valley city.

关 键 词：旅游产业 文化产业 融合协调度 系统动力学模型 兰州市 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]