基于SPEI的安徽滁州市旱涝特征及其对小麦产量的影响  

Characteristics of Drought and Flood Based on SPEI and Its Impact on Wheat Yield in Chuzhou of Anhui Province

作　　者：郁凌华 谢五三[2] 熊世为 张鑫童 邢程 胡姗姗 YU Linghua;XIE Wusan;XIONG Shiwei;ZHANG Xintong;XING Cheng;HU Shanshan(Chuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Chuzhou 239000,Anhui,China;Anhui Provincial Climate Center,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省滁州市气象局,安徽滁州239000 [2]安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥230031

出　　处：《干旱气象》2021年第5期742-749,共8页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502402);安徽省自然科学基金(1908085MD109);安徽省气象局科研项目(KM201903);滁州市气象科研项目(CZQXKY201902)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2019年安徽滁州地区7个国家站常规气象观测资料和1980—2019年小麦生育期观测资料及单产数据,采用多时间尺度的SPEI旱涝指数,探讨分析滁州地区气象旱涝特征及其对小麦产量的影响。结果表明:滁州地区SPEI具有明显的月际、季节变化特征,冬季各月的SPEI收敛性最强,夏季各月的SPEI离散度最大,且呈现明显的春旱、夏涝特征,季节性连旱、连涝中春夏连旱、春夏连涝造成的影响最重。滁州市2000年以后春季呈现干旱化态势,20世纪90年代后夏、冬季均转为变湿的态势,尤以冬季变湿趋势最为显著,而秋季干湿趋势不明显,但2009年以后略有增湿趋势。3月的SPEI3与小麦气候产量相关性最显著,两者存在二次项系数为负的抛物线关系,当3月的SPEI3值大于0.81或小于-1.93时,可能会造成小麦高度减产。Based on the meteorological observation data at seven national stations in Chuzhou of Anhui Province from 1961 to 2019 and the observation data in growth periods and yield per unit area of wheat from 1980 to 2019,the characteristics of meteorological drought and flood in Chuzhou and its impact on wheat yield were discussed and analyzed by using the multi-time-scale SPEI.The results show that the monthly and seasonal variation characteristics of SPEI were obvious in Chuzhou,and the astringency of SPEI in each month of winter was the strongest,while the dispersion of SPEI in each month of summer was the biggest.The climate characteristic of drought in spring and flood in summer was obvious in Chuzhou.The continuous drought from spring to summer was the most serious seasonal continuous drought in Chuzhou,and the continuous flood from spring to summer was the most serious seasonal continuous flood in the whole year.There was a trend of drought in spring since 2000 in Chuzhou,and the climate in summer and winter became wet after the 1990s,especially in winter,while the trend of dry and wet in autumn wasn’t significant,but there was a slight humidifying trend after 2009.The correlation between SPEI3 in March and wheat climate yield was the most significant,and there was parabola relationship with negative quadratic coefficient between them.When the value of SPEI3 in March was greater than 0.81 or less than-1.93,the yield of wheat was likely to reduce highly.

关 键 词：SPEI 旱涝特征 小麦产量影响 滁州 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]