蚌埠监测中心井水位长时间持续升高成因分析  

Analysis on the causes of the long-term continuous increase of the water level in the well of Bengbu Monitoring Center

作　　者：石小磊 李良辉 王俊[2] 张伟峰[2] 肖攀[2] 潘洁[2] 杜默然 Shi Xiaolei;Li Lianghui;Wang Jun;Zhang Weifeng;Xiao Pan;Pan Jie;Du Moran(Earthquake Monitoring Center of Bengbu Earthquake Agency,Anhui Bengbu 233000,China;Anhui Earthquake Agency,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]蚌埠市地震局地震监测中心,安徽蚌埠233000 [2]安徽省地震局,合肥230031

出　　处：《地震科学进展》2021年第10期472-476,共5页Progress in Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：安徽省地震局科研合同制课题(202102)资助。

摘　　要：本文以蚌埠监测中心井2017—2020年水位10次明显的长时间持续升高为研究对象,选取10次水位升高前后不同时段的降雨量进行多元回归分析,建立多元回归方程。结果显示,2017—2020年水位10次明显的长时间持续升高主要与上升期间降雨量关系显著,与其他降雨参数关系不显著。结合蚌埠周边ML2.5以上地震目录分析结果认为,水位长时间持续升高的规律与地震频次发生规律相对应,说明降雨和区域应力场变化共同影响了蚌埠监测中心水位的变化。This paper takes 10 times of obvious long-term continuous rise of water level in Bengbu Monitoring Center well from 2017 to 2020 as the research object.Multiple regression analysis was conducted on influencing factors of rainfall in different periods before and after 10 times of water level rise.Multiple regression equations were established.The results show that:the 10 times of obvious long-term sustained rise of water level from 2017 to 2020 are mainly related to the influence of rainfall during the rise.It has no significant relationship with other rainfall parameters.Combined with the analysis results of earthquake catalogs above M_(L)2.5 in Bengbu area,the law of water level rising continuously for a long time corresponds to the law of earthquake frequency,which shows that rainfall and regional stress field change jointly affect the water level change of Bengbu Monitoring Center.

关 键 词：降雨 多元回归 地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]