西红花全球生态适宜区预测及生态特征  

Global Ecological Suitability Prediction and Ecological Characteristics of Crocus sativus L.

作　　者：杨芙蓉 冉家栋 齐耀东[1,2] 刘海涛 谢彩香[1,2] 宋经元 YANG Fu-rong;RAN Jia-dong;QI Yao-dong;LIU Hai-tao;XIE Cai-xiang;SONG Jing-yuan(Key Lab of Chinese Medicine Resources Conservation,State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of the People's Republic of China,Institute of Medicinal Plant Development,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Beijing 100193,China;Engineering Research Center of Chinese Medicine Resources,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院,北京协和医学院,药用植物研究所/国家中医药管理局中药资源保护重点研究室,北京100193 [2]中药资源教育部工程研究中心,北京100193

出　　处：《中国现代中药》2021年第9期1534-1541,共8页Modern Chinese Medicine

基　　金：中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程服务“一带一路”战略先导科研专项(2017-I2M-B&R-09)。

摘　　要：目的:预测西红花在全球的生态适宜区并分析其生态特征。方法:利用西红花124个样本分布点和30个环境因子数据,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测西红花在全球的生态适宜区,运用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)进行模型评价并分析其生态特征。结果:西红花全球适生区主要分布于北半球地中海沿岸的欧洲国家,遍布于欧洲南部、北部及东部,部分分布于亚洲西部、南部及东南部。模型评估结果显示,训练集和测试集的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.985和0.967,表明该模型的预测效果良好。结论:最冷季度平均降水量、最冷季度平均温度、昼夜温差与年温差比值、温度变化方差、土壤阳离子交换能力、最暖季度平均降水量和最冷月份最低温是影响西红花地理分布的关键环境因素,研究结果可为西红花的引种选址和资源保护提供参考。Objective:To predict the global ecological suitability of Crocus sativus L.and analyze its ecological characteristics.Methods:The present study predicted the global ecological suitability of C.sativus L.by the MaxEnt model according to 124 distribution points and 19 ecological variables,evaluated the model with the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and analyzed its ecological characteristics.Results:The results showed the suitable areas of C.sativus L.were mainly distributed in European countries on the Mediterranean coast in the northern hemisphere,involving Southern,Northern,and Eastern Europe.In addition,some were distributed in Western,Southern,and Southeastern Asia.The model evaluation revealed that the area under the ROC curve(AUC)of the training set and the test set was 0.985 and 0.967,respectively,indicating a good prediction effect of the model.Conclusion:The mean precipitation of the coldest quarter(bio19),mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11),isothermality(bio3),square deviation(SD)of temperature seasonality(bio4),the cation exchange capacity in topsoil and subsoil(CEC-SOIL),precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18),and min temperature of the coldest month(bio6)are the key climate factors affecting the geographical distribution of C.sativus L.The findings of this study can provide references for the site selection and protection of C.sativus L.

关 键 词：西红花 最大熵模型 生态特征 生态适宜区 

分 类 号：R282[医药卫生—中药学]