人民币储备需求的驱动因素研究  

Research on the Driving Factors of RMB Reserve Demand

作　　者：李静萍[1] 王韬悦 LI Jing-ping;WANG Tao-yue(School of Finance,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030006)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学金融学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《经济问题》2021年第11期51-59,共9页On Economic Problems

基　　金：山西省哲学社会科学规划课题“人民币汇率对山西省进出口贸易的动态影响研究”(2020YJ093);山西省研究生教育创新项目“离岸人民币债券市场发展对人民币国际化的影响研究”(2021Y503)。

摘　　要：以人民币储备需求为研究对象,探讨人民币储备需求的驱动因素,以期实现稳慎推进人民币国际化的目标。建立离岸债券市场发展程度等因素对人民币储备需求影响的交易成本模型,采用人民币1999—2020年的时间序列数据,使用向量自回归(VAR)脉冲响应模型,验证离岸债券市场发展程度、经济规模、国际贸易地位、汇率波动及金融市场发展对人民币储备需求的影响。研究表明,在众多宏观经济因素中,离岸债券市场发展程度、金融市场发展和经济规模对人民币储备需求的影响显著,其中离岸债券市场发展程度的影响最大。因此,我国要因时制宜发展离岸债券市场、进一步推动金融市场开放、增强经济实力,以建立国际货币新格局。This article takes the demand for RMB reserves as the research object and discusses the driving factors of the demand for RMB reserves in order to achieve the goal of steadily advancing the internationalization of the RMB.The article establishes a transaction cost model for the influence of factors such as the degree of development of the offshore bond market on the demand for RMB reserves.Using the RMB 1999-2020 time series data and using the vector autoregressive(VAR)impulse response model,it verified the impact of the offshore bond market development,economic scale,international trade status,exchange rate fluctuations and financial market development on the demand for RMB reserves.Research shows that among many macroeconomic factors,the development of offshore bond market,financial market development and economic scale have a significant impact on the demand for RMB reserves,of which the development of offshore bond market has the greatest impact.Therefore,China must develop the offshore bond market in light of the current conditions,further promote the opening of the financial market,strengthen economic strength,and establish a new international currency pattern.

关 键 词：人民币储备需求 驱动因素 离岸债券市场 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]