农民工迁移意愿对置业选择的影响研究  

The Impact of Migrant Workers’Migration Will on House Purchase Choice

作　　者：陈星宇 王悦[2] Chen Xingyu;Wang Yue(Institue of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;China Construction Bank Branch in Hubei,Wuhan 430022,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]中国建设银行湖北省分行,湖北武汉430015

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2021年第9期13-24,共12页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(项目编号:14CRK015);国家统计局统计科学重点研究项目(项目编号:2017LZ24);中央高校基本科研项目(项目编号:1510504)。

摘　　要：农民工的居留意愿是决定其是否在当地置业定居的关键要素。文章采用2016年国家计生委流动人口监测调查数据,运用Mprobit模型与工具变量的CMP模型,实证分析了农民工迁移意愿对置业选择的影响。结果表明:(1)愿意长期居留并落户类农民工在迁入地定居置业的概率最大,愿意长期居留但不愿落户类次之,只愿短期居留且不愿落户类置业概率最小。(2)家庭随迁规模和流动次数分别与置业意愿呈正相关与负相关性。(3)城市人均GDP与第三产业占比对农民工的置业意愿存在正向影响。此外,区域与流动背景对农民工的置业选择表现出明显的异质性影响。本文建议,政府应对不同迁移意愿类型的农民工给予不同的置业补贴和信贷优惠政策;同时,在保障农民工住房权益的基础之上,建立并完善针对新市民的住房政策体系。The residence willingness of migrant workers is a key factor to determine whether they buy houses and settle down in the local area.Based on the floating population monitoring survey data of the National Family Planning Commission in 2016,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of migrant workers’migration willingness on house ownership choice by using the Mprobit model and the CMP model of instrumental variables.The results show that:(1)the migrant workers who are willing to stay and settle down for a long time show the highest probability of buying a house in the immigration place;followed by those who are willing to stay long-term but are not willing to settle down,and the category that only wants to stay for a short time and does not want to settle down has the least probability of buying houses;(2)the scale of household migration and the times of mobility are correlated with house ownership willingness positively and negatively,respectively;(3)the ratio of urban per capita GDP to the tertiary industry has a positive impact on the willingness of migrant workers to buy houses.In addition,the regional and mobility background have a significant heterogeneous impact on the house ownership choice of migrant workers.This paper suggests that the government should give proper house purchase subsidies and credit preferential policies to migrant workers with different migration willingness.At the same time,on the basis of protecting the housing rights and interests of migrant workers,the housing policy system for new citizens should be established and improved.

关 键 词：农民工 迁移意愿 置业选择 置业影响因素 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]