采样规模与数据采集周期对城市居民用水模式不确定性的影响  

Influences of sample size and datalogging period on the uncertainty of urban residential water consumption pattern

作　　者：张佳欣 张磊 强志民[1,2] 何鑫 刘阔 徐强 ZHANG Jiaxin;ZHANG Lei;QIANG Zhimin;HE Xin;LIU Kuo;XU Qiang(Key Laboratory of Drinking Water Science and Technology,Research Center for Kco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100085,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Beijing Waterworks Group,Beijing,100031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心饮用水科学与技术重点实验室,北京100085 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京市自来水集团有限责任公司,北京100031

出　　处：《给水排水》2021年第10期134-139,共6页Water & Wastewater Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD1100105);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2019043);北京市自来水集团科研课题(20200588)。

摘　　要：用水模式曲线能够反映用户的用水规律,是了解用户用水情况的重要依据.而由于准确性及精细度受到采样规模与监测周期的影响,用水模式存在较大的不确定性.如何设置采样方案,从而得到稳定的用水模式是一个需要研究的重要问题.针对这一问题,探究了居民用水模式曲线随采样规模与数据采集周期的变化规律,提出了用水模式平均不确定性区间宽度(AUIW)的概念,用来表征其不确定性,进而以AUIW小于0.2和AUIW变化率绝对值小于0.01%作为模式曲线稳定的判断标准,确定了不同数据采集周期下获得稳定的模式曲线所需的采样规模.Residential water consumption pattern,which reflects the characters of the water consumption,is an important basis for the understanding of users'water consumption behavior.Uncertainty exists in the water consumption pattern because its accuracy and precision of the water consumption pattern curve is impacted by the sample size and datalogging period.It is therefore important to study how to set up a sampling plan to obtain a stable water consumption pattern.This study explored the change rule of residential water consumption patterns as the sample size and datalogging period change.The concept of average uncertainty interval width(AUIW)was proposed to characterize the uncertainty of water consumption patterns.AUIW being less than 0.2 and the absolute value of AUIW change rate being less than 0.01% were determined as the criteria to assess the stability of the pattern curves.Finally,the critical sample size for obtaining stable pattern curves with different datalogging periods were determined.

关 键 词：供水管网 居民用水模式 模式曲线 不确定性 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]