“修昔底德陷阱”与中美太空互动  

“Thucydides Trap”and Sino-U.S.Space Interaction

作　　者：李虎平 LI Huping

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学国际关系与地区发展研究院,上海200062

出　　处：《国际展望》2021年第6期80-104,148,149,共27页Global Review

摘　　要：世界主要国家对太空依赖程度的加深是中美等大国积极探索太空的重要原因。目前,中美双边太空互动正在从合作走向竞争,甚至出现走向对抗与冲突的趋势,滑向太空“修昔底德陷阱”的风险正在增大。中美两国需要加强太空合作,推进太空规范建设,优化太空安全环境,合力跨越太空“修昔底德陷阱”。由于中美两国太空安全观差异较大,中国太空力量的快速增长引发美国的担忧,加之太空资源占有冲动的驱使,美国对中国太空事业的发展负面认知明显增多,对抗色彩日益浓厚,双方的太空安全困境不断凸显。美国以护持太空霸权地位为目标,坚持太空单边主义,深化以其为首的太空军事联盟建设,加速太空武器化进程,大肆渲染中国“太空威胁论”,持续加大对华太空遏制力度,为中美太空合作增添了不稳定因素。中国在坚持太空多边主义、加快太空力量建设的同时,必须倡导和坚持太空和平发展理念,加强太空和平外交宣示。在国际上,要推动大国太空合作,构建太空命运共同体,增强中国太空话语权。在中美两国之间,要推动建立中美太空安全对话机制,构建中美新型太空关系,维护和扩展双方在太空领域的共同利益。The"anarchy"of space and the increasing dependence of countries on space are important reasons for China and the United States to actively explore space. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, bilateral space interaction is moving from cooperation to competition, and even to confrontation and conflict, and the risk of sliding into the space "Thucydides trap" is increasing. China and the United States need to strengthen space cooperation, advance the construction of space regulations, optimize the space security environment, and work together to overcome the "Thucydides Trap" in space. However, Sino-U.S. space security views are highly heterogeneous. The rapid growth of China’s space power has caused U.S. concerns. In addition, driven by the impulse to possess space resources, the United States has significantly increased its negative perceptions of China’s space development and has become more confrontational. The space security dilemma continues to intensify. The United States aims to maintain space supremacy, adheres to space unilateralism, actively builds space military alliances, exaggerates China's "space threat" theory, accelerates the process of space weaponization, and continues to increase the containment of China's space for China and the United States. Cooperation injects instability. While adhering to space multilateralism and accelerating the development of space power, China must adhere to the strategy of peaceful development in space, strengthen its peaceful diplomatic declarations in space, and increase China’s right to speak in space. China should also promote the establishment of a Sino-U.S. space security dialogue mechanism and build a new Sino-U.S. space relationship, maintain and expand bilateral common interests.

关 键 词：修昔底德陷阱 太空军事联盟 太空霸权 太空安全共同体 

分 类 号：E864[军事—战术学] D815[政治法律—国际关系]