基于供应链收益结构分析的供应商依赖与违约风险研究  

Supplier dependence and default risk based on structural analysis of profit in supply-chain

作　　者：黄苒[1] 宋昱 胡丽琴 HUANG Ran;SONG Yu;HU Liqin(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2021年第6期183-193,共11页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171100);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(18YJA790037);中央高校基本业务经费项目(CCNU19TS059)。

摘　　要：本文就供应商依赖对企业盈利和违约风险的影响进行了研究。在对供应链合作、议价及收益分配等关系进行结构化分析基础上,本文构建了基于供应链收益流的违约风险测度模型,并通过理论分析和数值模拟探讨了供应商依赖的价值效应、分配效应及其对企业违约风险的净影响。研究发现,较高的供应商依赖程度更有利于增加企业盈利、降低企业违约风险水平。随着对供应商依赖程度的下降,企业的违约风险呈现先略有下降再逐渐上升的变化趋势。进一步研究发现,当供应商依赖度较高时,企业违约风险随供应商数量的增加而呈正U型变化。若供应商议价能力较强会使企业违约风险加速恶化。此时,将供应商数量维持在较低水平且尽量选择议价能力较低的供应商,对提高企业盈利和降低违约风险更有利。而当供应商依赖度较低时,供应商数量增加使企业违约风险呈倒U型变化,且供应商议价能力对企业违约风险的影响较小。此时,将供应商数量维持在较高水平对企业更有利。此外,企业在产品市场上的定价势力对提升供应链及企业自身的盈利具有叠加效应,而对企业违约风险的改善主要体现为替代效应。Supply-chain cooperation provides a feasible way for firms to integrate resources,reinforce core competitiveness and expand market share.Through collaboration and coordination with upstream and downstream partners in a supply-chain,they could reduce production costs and sale costs significantly,improve operational efficiency as well as efficiency of capital utilization,and thus increase profit for both a supply-chain and firms themselves.Especially,those small firms which are in an unfavorable position in market competition,may benefit from sustainable demand and stable supply in a supply-chain.However,with deepening dependence on a supply-chain,firms also suffer more negative impacts.Players in a more advantageous position may use their bargaining power to control trading price and take more share from a supply-chain.Large customers(suppliers)may force the purchasing price down(the supplying price up),shorten(extend)the delivery time and prolong the period of payables(accelerate the collection of receivables),which could adversely affect a firm’s producing and operating efficiency.Furthermore,a large amount of relationship-specific investment upon the supply-chain may slow down a firm’s capital turnover and result in higher credit risk.Supply-chain cooperation and dependence have both positive and negative effects on a firm’s producing efficiency,operating management and profitability,which leads to uncertainties in a firm’s liquidity and creditworthiness.Therefore,it is one of the most urgent issues in supply-chain management currently that how to keep relevant risks within a proper range while maximizing profits of firms in a supply-chain.This paper builds a structural framework for a supply chain with multiple upstream suppliers and one downstream firm to study the impact of supplier dependence on a firm’s protability and default risk.We analyze the mechanism of cooperation,bargaining and profit allocation in this supply chain and then develop a profit-flow based default risk model.Using this mod

关 键 词：供应商依赖 结构分析 价值效应 分配效应 违约风险 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F275