中国房地产市场消费者羊群行为及其区域差异研究--来自35个大中城市的经验证据  

Research on Herding Behavior and Regional Differences in China’s Real Estate Market--Based on empirical evidence from 35 large and medium cities

作　　者：刘广平[1] 刘晓越 姜晗 LIU Guang-ping;LIU Xiao-yue;JIANG Han(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第20期55-64,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河北省教育厅青年拔尖人才项目:住房租金波动对制造型企业投资的影响机理与对策研究(BJ2021061);河北省软科学项目:河北省共有产权住房准入标准研究(19456106D)。

摘　　要：以中国35个大中城市为样本,利用2004年至2018年的城市住宅价格数据,采用改进后的横截面收益偏差(CSAD)模型测度了我国房地产住宅市场消费者羊群行为的存在性,并基于城市发展等级测度了房地产住宅市场繁荣与萧条时期羊群行为对称性,同时,实证检验居民消费和就业相关变量对不同等级城市羊群效应的影响.结果显示:35个大中城市整体来看,在年度面板上不存在羊群效应,按城市发展水平分类后不同等级城市消费者发现存在羊群效应的证据,且不同城市等级羊群行为具有差异性.二线城市消费者始终存在显著羊群效应,体现出对称性,住宅市场繁荣时期羊群效应程度更高;一线城市和三线及以下城市仅在市场繁荣时期存在显著羊群行为,并没有发现新一线城市存在羊群行为的证据.Taking 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as samples,this paper uses the urban housing price data from 2004 to 2018 to measure the existence of herd behavior of the Chinese real estate housing market using the improved cross section return deviation(CSAD)method.Based on the urban development grades,the herding behavior symmetry of real estate residential market during boom and bust is measured.At the same time,empirical test of household consumption and employment related variables on different levels of urban herd effect.The results showes that there is no herd effect on the annual panel of 35 large and medium-sized cities on the whole,and evidence of herd effect is found in the cities of different grades according to the classification of urban development level,and herd behavior is different in cities of different grades.Second-tier cities always have significant herd behavior,which reflects symmetry.The herd behavior is higher in the boom period of housing market.There is no evidence of herd behavior in first-tier cities,second-tier cities and third-tier and lower-tier cities only during the boom period.

关 键 词：房地产市场 羊群效应 城市发展水平 改进CSAD方法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]