世界生育水平的变动历程及未来展望:趋势比较与规律总结  

Historical and Future Trajectories of World Fertility:Trends Comparison and Pattern Summary

作　　者：陈佳鞠[1] 靳永爱[1] CHEN Jiaju;JIN Yongai(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2021年第6期41-53,共13页Population Journal

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)决策咨询及预研委托项目基地自设升级计划:中国生育转变的特征规律、影响机制与发展趋势研究(20XNQ048)。

摘　　要：本研究借助联合国人口司公布的最新版《世界人口展望》以及世界银行数据库中的总和生育率数据,详细对比分析不同地理区域、不同经济社会发展水平的国家(地区)多样化的生育水平变动历程,总结归纳出已经完成生育转变的国家(地区)低生育水平的不同变动模式,展望世界生育水平的未来演变趋势。研究发现:世界各国(地区)的生育水平变动是个“殊途同归”的过程,但更替水平并非世界各国(地区)完成生育转变后生育率的“统一归宿”,绝大多数国家(地区)的总和生育率都将不同程度地低于更替水平,但不会无止境地降下去,而是会在1~2的低水平范围内徘徊波动;对于已经完成生育转变的国家(地区)来说,生育水平的进一步变动并没有一个统一的模式,结合目前已经完成生育转变的国家(地区)近期的总和生育率变动轨迹,本研究归纳出低生育水平的8类变动模式,依次为低位小幅波动型、高位小幅波动型、先降后升型、先升后降型、低水平波动版先升后降型、长升短降型、一波多折型以及持续下降型;当一国(地区)完成生育转变之后,其生育水平的升降波动都是小幅度、阶段性的,而非永久性的,回升现象的出现并非意味着不再下降,同样,下降持续了一段时间之后也并非不再出现回升,“低生育率陷阱”可能只是一个短期现象。Using the total fertility rate from the latest World Population Prospect published by the Popu⁃lation Division of United Nations and the database of World Bank,this study compares and analyzes the diversified historical trajectories of fertility level of countries(regions)which belong to different geographi⁃cal regions and have different levels of economic and social development in detail,summarizes 8 change patterns of low fertility in countries(regions)that have completed the fertility transition,and predicts the fu⁃ture trends of world fertility.This study finds that the change of fertility level of all countries(regions)in the world is a process of“all paths lead to the same destination”.However,the replacement level is not the“unified level”of fertility rate of countries(regions)that have completed the fertility transition,the total fer⁃tility rate of most countries(regions)will be lower than the replacement level to varying degrees and will fluctuate between 1 and 2 rather than fall to 0.For countries(regions)that have completed fertility transi⁃tion,there is no unified pattern for further changes of fertility rate.This study summarizes 8 change patterns of low fertility,which is fluctuate slightly at lower level,fluctuate slightly at higher level,decline firstly and then rise,rise firstly and then decline,rise firstly and then decline at lower level,rise for a long time and then decline for a short time,rise alternated with decline,and continuous decline.After a country(region)completes the fertility transition,the fluctuation of fertility rate will be slight and temporary rather than per⁃manent.The emergence of rise does not mean the end of decline and decline for a while does not mean that the fertility rate will never rise again.The“Low-fertility Trap”may be a short-term phenomenon.

关 键 词：国际比较 总和生育率 更替水平 低生育水平 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]