基于时间序列自回归移动平均模型的我国政府卫生支出预测研究  

Prediction and Research on Government Health Expenditure in China Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：刘芹 常仁杰 毕立雄 傅映平 万红芬 冯启明[3] 朱平华[3] LIU Qin(School of Nursing,Yunnan University of Chinese Medicine,Kunming,Yunnan,650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南中医药大学护理学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南省中医医院脾胃病科消化内镜中心,云南昆明650021 [3]广西医科大学,广西南宁530000

出　　处：《医学与社会》2021年第11期64-69,共6页Medicine and Society

基　　金：云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目,编号为2020J0308;国家社会科学基金资助项目,编号为18XZZ013。

摘　　要：目的:通过构建时间序列自回归移动平均模型预测未来6年我国政府卫生支出的变化情况,为政府制定和调整相关健康政策提供数据支持。方法:利用1990-2019年我国政府卫生支出及其4大具体流向总额的时间序列构建预测模型,研究我国政府卫生支出及其结构的变化情况。结果:模型的绝对误差最大值均在10%以内,拟合效果良好。经预测,2025年政府卫生支出增至34786.19亿元,6年内以年均12.04%比率增长,医疗卫生服务支出、医疗保障补助支出总额分别以年均7.59%和6.57%比率逐年上升,卫生和医疗保障行政管理支出、人口与计划生育事务性支出分别以年均38.1%和0.31%比率逐年下降。结论:未来6年我国政府卫生支出增长速度减缓,医疗卫生服务与医疗保障补助支出持续增长,卫生和医疗保障行政管理、人口与计划生育事务支出总额下降,政府卫生支出及其结构波动受医疗卫生政策等因素影响,仍需对政府卫生支出规模和结构进行科学测度与监测。Objective:To predict the changes of government health expenditure in China in the next six years by constructing ARIMA model,so as to provide data support for the government to formulate and adjust relevant health policies.Methods:The prediction model was constructed by using the time series of government health expenditure and its four specific flows in China from 1990 to 2019,and the changes of government health expenditure and its structure in China were studied.Results:The maximum absolute error of the model was all within 10%,and the fitting effect was good.It was predicted that government health expenditure would increase to 3478619 million yuan in 2025 and grow at an average annual rate of 12.04%within 6 years.The total medical and health service expenditure and medical security subsidy expenditure will increase year by year at an average annual rate of 7.59%and 6.57%respectively.Health and medical security administrative expenditures and expenditures on population and family planning affairs will decline year by year at an average annual rate of 38.1%and 0.31%respectively.Conclusion:In the next six years,the growth rate of government health expenditure in China will slow down,medical and health services and medical security subsidies will continue to grow,and the total expenditure of health and medical security administration and population and family planning affairs will decline.The fluctuations of government health expenditure and its structure will be affected by factors including medical and health policies.It is still necessary to scientifically measure and monitor the scale and structure of government health expenditures to provide data and information.

关 键 词：政府卫生支出 卫生支出结构 预测 

分 类 号：R19-0[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]