利率双轨制对货币政策调控的影响及转轨策略  

The Influence of the Dual-track Interest Rate System on Monetary Policy Regulation and Its Transitional Strategies

作　　者：王冰冰 Wang Bing-bing(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201701)

机构地区：[1]上海政法学院经济管理学院,上海201701

出　　处：《经济纵横》2021年第9期109-119,共11页Economic Review Journal

摘　　要：推动我国货币政策由数量型向价格型转轨,利率双轨制是货币政策转型的主要掣肘因素。本文分析了我国利率双轨制的典型特征,运用马尔科夫区制转移模型实证研究了计划轨和市场轨利率对货币政策调控效果的相对有效性。结果发现,我国利率双轨制的典型特征是由基准存贷款利率决定的信贷市场利率(计划轨利率)和基本由市场决定的货币及债券市场利率(市场轨利率)并存,主要原因在于完整的市场利率传导链条并未形成。无论是对产出目标还是对通货膨胀率目标,市场轨利率的调控强度均大于计划轨利率,应选择市场轨利率指标作为中介目标,推动将计划轨与市场轨调控并存转向完全的市场轨调控。我国向价格型货币政策转轨仍面临一定挑战,应加强顶层设计,加快货币市场、资本市场、商业银行、重大体制机制、信贷政策改革的步伐。The dual interest rate system is the main constraint factor in China’s monetary policy transformation,and it is necessary to promote the transition of price monetary policy. This paper analyzes the typical characteristics of China’s dual interest rate system and empirically studies the relative effectiveness of planned and market track interest rate regulation by using markov regime switching model. The results show that the typical characteristics of the dual interest rate system in China are the coexistence of the interest rate in the credit market( the planned interest rate) determined by the benchmark deposit and loan rates and the interest rate in the currency and bond markets( the market interest rate) basically determined by the market,mainly because the complete transmission chain of the market interest rate has not been formed. Whether it is output or inflation rate,the market rail interest rate is stronger than the planned rail interest rate. Therefore,we should choose the market rail interest rate as the price intermediary target,and unswervingly promote the coexistence of planned rail and market rail regulation to complete market rail regulation. China’s transition to a price-based monetary policy still faces certain challenges. We should strengthen top-level design,accelerate the pace of reforms in the money market,capital market,commercial banks,major systems and mechanisms,and credit policies,and further strengthen macro-control.

关 键 词：利率双轨制 利率市场化 价格型货币政策 LPR改革 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]