两千年来中国经济重心变迁的量化分析——基于人口和城市数据的代用分析  

A Quantitative Study on the Spatio-temporal Changes of China’s Economic Centers of Gravity for the Past 2000 Years: A Proxy Analysis Based on Population and City Data

作　　者：龚胜生[1,2] 肖克梅 Gong Shengsheng;Xiao Kemei(Institute of Sustainable Development/College of Urban and Environmental Science,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China;Key Laboratory of Geographical process and Space Analysis Simulation of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430079,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学可持续发展研究中心/城市与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]地理过程与空间分析模拟湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《地理科学》2021年第9期1587-1597,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2016CFA026);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171408);国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD145)资助。

摘　　要：基于历史文献及统计年鉴中的人口和城市数据,采用历史时间断面方法和现代GIS空间分析方法,对过去2 000 a来(公元2—2015年)中国经济重心的变迁轨迹进行量化研究,结果表明:1)中国经济重心总体上是趋向东南迁移,唐代以前主要向西南移动,北宋以后主要向东南移动,中国经济的空间分异先以由南北差异为主,后以东西差异为主;"沈(阳)-兰(州)-西(双版纳)弧线"东南侧的经济发展过程与格局很大程度上可代表整个中国的经济发展过程与格局。2)中国经济重心变迁与其人口重心、城市重心的变迁关系十分密切,3类重心分布区域正是古称"中原"的地区,且3类重心始终位于几何中心的东部,中国东、西部的经济差异由来久远,且相对稳定。3)中国经济重心变迁受人口格局和城市格局变化的双重制约,随着时间推移,单位人口的经济当量趋于降低,单位城市的经济当量趋于上升,城市经济格局对总体经济格局的影响日益显著。Based on the data of population and city, this article studies the distribution and change of China’s economic center of gravity in the past 2 000 years(A.D.2-2015) by using historical temporal section method and GIS spatial analysis method. The results show that: 1) Over the past 2 000 years, China’s economic center of gravity has generally moved toward the southeast, but before the Tang Dynasty, it mainly moved to the southwest. After the Song Dynasty, it mainly moved to the southeast. It means that the spatial pattern of China’s economy has shifted from North-South differences to East-West differences. And the economic development process and pattern of the southeastern half of "Shenyang-Lanzhou-Xishuangbanna Arc" in China, can represents the national economic development to a certain extent. 2) The " centers of gravity distribution area",formed by the population, city and economic centers of gravity, which are closely related, is roughly the socalled "Central Plains" area in history. These centers of gravity are always in the east of China’s geometric center, which illustrates that the economic gradient difference among the East and the West of China has a long history and is quite stable. 3) The change of China’s economic center of gravity is constrained by the changes of population pattern and city pattern. As time goes by, economic equivalent of per a person tends to decrease,and the economic equivalent of per a city tends to increase, which indicates that the impact of city economic development on the overall economic pattern is increasingly significant.

关 键 词：经济重心 人口重心 城市重心 

分 类 号：K928.6[历史地理—人文地理学]