经济新周期对国内页岩气开发投资管理的影响及对策建议  

Effect of New Economic Cycle on Investment Management of Shale Gas Development in China and Its Countermeasures

作　　者：史建勋[1,2] Shi Jianxun(Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,CNPC,Beijing 102488;National Energy Shale Gas R&D(Experimental)Center,Langfang Hebei 065007)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]国家能源页岩气研发(实验)中心,河北廊坊065007

出　　处：《中外能源》2021年第10期1-8,共8页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：国内经济进入新的周期,对页岩气开发投资决策及管理将产生多方面的影响。分析认为在经济新周期,国内大循环为主体,劳动报酬率提高,人工成本会逐渐上升;碳中和、碳交易的推行,会影响页岩气开发成本和需求;生产要素市场化配置,会从成本和收入两端带来价格波动风险;市场经济体制更加完善,市场化经营政策工具会更加丰富,市场营商环境将深入改善;金融深入服务实体经济,资本市场会更加健康,页岩气产业投融资会更加便利。针对这些影响提出对策建议,调整投资前分析工具,采用宏观对冲分析方法,建立宏观投资决策模型;加强投资后过程管理,基于微观财务数据建立全周期市场风险管理体系;加强宏观研究,建立专业化的投研团队,形成具有中国特色的市场化投资方法;改变投资策略,充分利用市场化政策方法,形成风险共担利益共享机制。As the economy in China enters a new cycle,investment decisions and management of shale gas development will be influenced in many aspects.The analysis presents that its mainstay is major domestic cycle,the rate of return on labor increases,and the labor cost will rise gradually in the new economic cycle;The implementation of carbon neutrality and carbon trading will have influence on the shale gas development costs and demand;Marketized allocation of factors in production will bring price fluctuation risks from both ends of cost and income.The market economy system will be further improved,policy tools for marketized operations will be more plentiful,and the business environment will be improved thoroughly.Financial services will further serve the real economy thoroughly.The capital market will be healthier,and investment and financing of the shale gas industry will be more convenient.In view of these effects,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.Pre-investment analysis tools should be adjusted,and macroscopic investment decision model is established using macroscopic hedge analysis method.Post-investment process management should be strengthened and full-cycle market risk management system may be established based on micro-financial data;Macroscopic research should be strengthened,and professional investment research team should be organized to form market-oriented investment method with Chinese characteristics;We should change investment strategies,and mechanism of risks and benefits sharing should be formed based on full use of market-oriented policies and methods.

关 键 词：经济新周期 页岩气 投资管理 价格波动 宏观对冲 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F124