欠发达地区的政策创新真的促进了“弯道超车”吗?——一个面向贵阳市大数据发展政策的合成控制检验  

Do Policy Innovations in Underdeveloped Regions Promote "Curve Overtaking"?——A SCM Test for Big Data Development Policy Innovation in Guiyang

作　　者：尚虎平 刘俊腾 Shang Huping;Liu Junteng(Zhou Enlai School of Government,Nankai University,Tianjin,300017,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院,天津300071

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2021年第4期34-45,168,共13页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(18JZD047)。

摘　　要：贵阳市的大数据发展政策究竟是虚有其表的"面子工程",还是确有其实、能够形成"弯道超车"效果的"发展引擎"?在各种媒体高调宣扬其政策效果显著的背景下,廓清此问题对推进我国区域发展政策创新具有较好的示范价值。本文以2005—2019年中国21个省会(首府)城市为样本,以2013年贵阳开始实施大数据发展政策为准自然实验,利用合成控制法检验了大数据发展政策对贵阳市发展产生的效应。实证结果显示,贵阳实施大数据发展政策取得了较好的发展绩效,具有一定的"弯道超车"效果,这为欠发达地区的经济跨越式发展提供了一条可资借鉴的路径。然而,以贵阳为代表的欠发达地区在追求依靠政策供给实现"弯道超车"的同时,还需要充分遵守区域发展的客观规律来补短板、攻关核心领域,夯实发展基础。本文表明经典发展理论所强调的基础性生产要素仍然在地区经济发展中起着决定性作用,在这些基础要素不成熟的条件下进行大数据等高新科技政策创新虽然有助于落后地区的发展,但难以实现持续性、根本性的跨越式"弯道超车"。The objective of this paper is to test the policy effect of Guiyang’s Big Data Development Policy,to test the possibility of various "Curve Overtaking" thinking,and to make up for the shortcomings of current development theories. This article takes 21 provincial capital cities in China from 2005 to 2019 as a sample,and takes Guiyang’s implementation of the Big Data Development Policy in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses a Synthetic Control Method to test the policy effect. The empirical results show that Guiyang’s implementation of the Big Data Development Policy has achieved good development performance and has a certain "Curve Overtaking" effect,which provides a path for economic leaping development in underdeveloped regions. However,while the underdeveloped regions represented by Guiyang are pursuing to rely on policy supply to achieve "Curving Overtaking",they also need to fully abide by the objective laws of regional development to make up for shortcomings,tackle key areas,and lay a solid foundation for development. The limitation of this study is that it only pays attention to the economic effects of the Big Data Development Policy in Guiyang,and does not pay attention to the role of the policy in government governance and social services.This article shows that the basic production factors emphasized by the classic development theory still play a decisive role in the regional economic development. Under the conditions of immature basic factors,high-tech policy innovations such will help the development of underdeveloped regions but it is difficult to achieve continuous,substantive,and fundamental leaping "Curve Overtaking".

关 键 词：大数据发展政策 “弯道超车” 合成控制法 政策效应评估 地区发展 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]