中国农村低保制度的瞄准精度和减贫效果——基于2013和2018年CHIP数据的实证分析  

Targeting Performance and Anti-Poverty Effectiveness of Subsistence Allowance System for Rural Areas——Evidence from CHIP 2013 and 2018 Data

作　　者：韩华为[1] 高琴[2] Han Huawei;Gao Qin(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875,China;School of Social Work,Columbia University,New York,NY10027,USA)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院,北京100875 [2]哥伦比亚大学社会工作学院,纽约10027

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2021年第4期78-92,171,共16页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71703008)。

摘　　要：基于中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)2013和2018两期农户数据,本文考察了制度调整背景下农村低保瞄准精度和减贫效果的演变特征。研究结果表明:农村低保在实际执行中遵循了多维度资格审核机制,收入、财产、刚性支出、家庭结构和人力资本状况在低保资格认定中均发挥重要作用。2013到2018年间,农村低保的错保偏误得到大幅削减,而其漏保偏误却依旧未能得到有效控制,中西部地区农村低保补贴不足问题仍然较为突出。在此期间,尽管农村低保在降低贫困发生率方面的效果有所提升,但政策模拟结果显示,通过改善瞄准精度来提高农村低保减贫效果仍存在很大的潜在空间。在推进乡村振兴战略新时期,规范多维度审核标准、优化居民经济状况核查手段、提高落后地区低保专项转移、调整基层低保执行者的激励机制将是改善农村低保瞄准精度和减贫效果的重要举措。The objective of this article was to analyze the trends in rural subsistence allowance system’s targeting performance and anti-poverty effectiveness from 2013 to 2018,when a series of policy adjustments on rural Dibao took place. Using the China Household Income Project(CHIP)2013 and 2018 survey data,this article estimated and compared rural subsistence allowance system’s targeting performance based on income and multidimensional poverty measures. It further evaluated rural subsistence allowance system ’s anti-poverty effectiveness and assessed its potential based on a policy simulation analysis. The multidimensional poverty measures were used to identify eligible households in rural subsistence allowance system ’s practical implementation. From 2013 to 2018,rural subsistence allowance system’s inclusion targeting error decreased significantly,but its exclusion targeting error remained at a high level. The rural subsistence allowance system benefit gap remained substantial in central and western regions. The effect of Rural subsistence allowance system on reducing poverty incidence increased during this period. Policy simulation results indicated that there was still much room to improve rural subsistence allowance system ’s anti-poverty effectiveness. Rural subsistence allowance system’s future reforms should focus on improving its targeting performance and anti-poverty effectiveness by establishing rigorous multidimensional eligibility criteria,applying information technology in targeting procedures,increasing subsistence allowance system grants from the central government to local governments with limited fiscal capacity,and adjusting subsistence allowance system recipients’ behavioral incentives. The article provided new evidence on rural subsistence allowance system’s targeting performance and anti-poverty effectiveness based on a nationally representative household survey dataset. Rural subsistence allowance system’s targeting performance and anti-poverty effectiveness were evaluated sys

关 键 词：农村低保 瞄准精度 减贫效果 政策模拟 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理]