日本菅义伟政府台海政策及其与台湾地区关系发展走向  

Yoshihide Suga Government’s Taiwan Strait Policy and the Development Trend of Japan-Taiwan Relations

作　　者：严安林[1,2] Yan Anlin

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院 [2]上海市台湾研究会

出　　处：《台海研究》2021年第3期77-84,共8页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：日本菅义伟政府上台以来,对中国的政策开始进行调整与变化——根本转变了安倍执政后期所确立的缓和中日关系的政策立场,包括在台海政策上采取了进一步介入台海事务、干涉中国内政的行为,大力推进、提升与台湾地区的关系。这一政策转变的外在大背景是美国拜登政府继续秉持"战略竞争",甚至是"战略对抗"的对华政策立场以及纵容日本对抗中国的"盟友政策",内在深层动因则在于日本国内政治的进一步右倾化,视中国发展为日本最大的"现实威胁",在内部治理不佳、菅义伟权威不足情况下,对华遏制政策成为其"甩锅"执政失败、转移视线、提振内阁支持率的选择。未来日本与台湾地区很可能在军事、安全、海洋与高层往来等方面有较大进展,日本政府"一中"政策进一步空心化。Since YoshihideSuga government came to power,Japan’s China policy has changed and adjusted,including further involving itself in Taiwan affairs,interfering in China’s internal affairs and vigorously promoting and improving relations with Taiwan.It shifted fundamentally the moderate policy of Sino-Japanese relations which had been established at the end of Abe’s administration.The external context of this shift is the Biden administration upholding the policy of“strategic competition”,or even“strategic confrontation”towards China and conniving at Japan’s confrontation with China,while the internal motivation lies in the furthering of the rightist tendency of Japanese domestic politics.Japan regards China’s development as its biggest“real threat”.Under the circumstances of poor internal governance and insufficient authority of Suga,the policy of containing China became his choice to shift the blame of administrative failure,divert attention and boost the approval rating of the cabinet.In the future,Japan and Taiwan are likely to make noticeable moves s in military,security,maritime affairs and high-level exchanges,and the“one China”policy will be further hollowed out.

关 键 词：菅义伟政府 台海政策 日台关系 

分 类 号：D822.331.3[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—外交学]