内蒙古近547a旱涝演变及驱动力分析  

Evolution and Driving Forces of Drought-Flood in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region over the Past 547 Years

作　　者：杨思敏 权全[1] 严登华[2] 刘铁军[3] 党康宁 YANG Simin;QUAN Quan;YAN Denghua;LIU Tiejun;DANG Kangning(State Key Laboratory of EcoHydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi􀆳an University of Technology,Xi􀆳an 710048,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Institute of Water Resources for Pastoral Area,Hohhot 010020,China;Shaanxi HanjiangtoWeihe River Diversion Project Construction Co.,Ltd.,Xi􀆳an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]水利部牧区水利科学研究所,内蒙古呼和浩特010020 [4]陕西省引汉济渭工程建设有限公司,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第11期81-86,102,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601503);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779156)。

摘　　要：内蒙古气候干燥少雨,旱灾频发。在常年干旱的气候背景下,会出现雨急量大的超长暴雨,造成相当严重的水灾,水灾是仅次于旱灾的内蒙古第二大灾。旱涝引发的灾害占各类自然灾害总损失的80%以上,从旱涝灾害的角度出发,研究内蒙古旱涝演变特征、规律及驱动力的影响。对内蒙古近547 a的旱涝等级序列进行重新构建,采用M-K检验、B-G算法、CEEMDAN、交叉小波和马尔科夫链数学模型分析旱涝的演变规律及变化特征。结果表明:1470—2016年内蒙古旱涝序列以0.012/(10 a)的速率从干旱频发期向洪涝频发期演变,可划分为3个时期,并呈现上升—下降—上升的趋势。旱涝序列各分量周期显示出不同的年际振荡和年代际波动,旱涝转移优势状态总体趋于正常。在共振周期上,相比NAO、PDO、ENSO等气候因子,SSN和AO对内蒙古旱涝的影响较大。Inner Mongolia AutonomousRegion has a dry climate with little rain and frequent droughts.There will be heavy rain in the context of perennial drought,resulting in serious flooding.Flood is the second most serious disaster in Inner Mongolia after drought.The disasters caused by drought and flood account for more than 80 percent of the total losses caused by natural disasters.From the perspective of drought and flood disasters,the characteristics of drought and flood evolution and the influence of driving forces in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were studied.It reconstructed the drought and flood grade series in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of the past 547 years.By using Mann-Kendall test,B-G algorithm,CEEMDAN,cross wavelet and Markov chain mathematical model,the evolution law and change features of drought and flood were analyzed.The results show that from 1470 to 2016,the drought and flood sequences in Inner Mongolia evolve from frequent drought period to frequent flood period at a rate of 0.012/(10 a).The drought and flood grading series in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region can be divided into three periods.The rate of drought and flood grade shows a trend of increasing,decreasing and increasing.The cycles of each component of the series in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region show different inter-annual oscillation and inter-decadal fluctuation respectively.The dominant state of drought and flood transfer tends to be normal on the whole.At the resonance period,compared with NAO,PDO,ENSO and other climatic factors,SSN and AO have a greater impact on drought and flood in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

关 键 词：旱涝演变 马尔科夫链 交叉小波 内蒙古 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S423[农业科学—植物保护]