基于云模型的重大水利PPP项目融资风险评价  

Financing Risk Assessment of Major Water Conservancy PPP Projects Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：谷立娜 张春玲[2] 吴涛[1] GU Lina;ZHANG Chunling;WU Tao(Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学,山东青岛266520 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《人民黄河》2021年第11期116-121,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51778313)。

摘　　要：重大水利工程PPP项目具有周期长、成本高等特点,为保证项目正常建设运营,降低融资风险,运用物理-事理-人理(WSR)方法论构建重大水利工程PPP项目融资风险评价指标体系,提出了运用BWM法确定主观权重、改进CRITIC法确定客观权重、乘法归一化法确定组合权重的方法,建立云模型实现定性与定量的相互转化,得到项目综合评价结果。以韩江高陂水利枢纽工程为例,运用该模型进行融资风险评价并进行分析。研究表明:模型评价结果与项目实际情况一致,验证了组合赋权法及模型的合理性和有效性,为重大水利PPP项目融资风险评价提供了依据。PPP projects of major water conservancy have the characteristics of long cycle and high cost.In order to ensure the normal construction and operation of the project and reduce the financing risk,this paper used the Wuli-Shili-Renli system approach(WSR)to construct a major water conservancy PPP project financing risk evaluation index system,put forward the determination of subjective weight by BWM method,determination of objective weight by improved critical method and determination of combination weight by multiplication normalization method,established a cloud model to achieve qualitative and quantitative mutual transformation and obtained the comprehensive evaluation results of the project.Finally,taking Gaopi Water Control Project of Hanjiang River as an example,the model was used to evaluate and analyze financing risks.The research shows that the evaluation results of the model are consistent with the actual situation of the project,which verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the combination weighting method and the model,and provides a basis for the financing risk evaluation of major water conservancy PPP projects.

关 键 词：WSR 重大水利工程 PPP 融资风险 最优最劣法 改进CRITIC法 云模型 

分 类 号：TV-9[水利工程] F283[经济管理—国民经济]