2019年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定  

Verification on Forecasts of Typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019

作　　者：陈国民[1] 张喜平 杨梦琪 白莉娜[1] 万日金[1] CHEN Guomin;ZHANG Xiping;YANG Mengqi;BAI Lina;WAN Rijin(Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030

出　　处：《气象》2021年第10期1266-1276,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506406、2020YFE0201900);上海市科学技术委员会科研计划(19dz1200101)共同资助。

摘　　要：对2019年西北太平洋和南海海域台风定位和定强、路径预报、强度预报及登陆点预报精度进行评定,结果表明2019年台风定位总平均误差为24.7 km,定强总平均误差为2.5 m·s^(-1),两者同比2018年均略偏大。预报时效在72 h以内的主观和客观台风路径预报性能自2013年以来并没有实质性改进,2019年部分预报方法的路径预报极端误差平均值是各自年平均误差的2.1~3.9倍。中央气象台3 d以内的强度预报效果优于其他官方台风预报机构。2019年各官方台风预报机构较成功地预报出了台风利奇马在浙江温岭和山东青岛,以及台风白鹿在台湾屏东和福建东山的登陆点。Operational positioning and intensity estimation,track,intensity and landfall point forecast errors of the typhoons over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019 are evaluated.The results show that the overall errors of typhoon mean positioning and intensity estimation in 2019 were a little larger than in 2018,being 24.7 km and 2.5 m·s-1,respectively.Since 2013,the overall track forecast performance within 72 h did not show substantive improvement for both subjective and objective forecast methods.In 2019,the mean values of extreme error were up to 2.1-3.9 times as much as their annual mean track errors.The intensity forecast performance of CMA within 3 days is better than that of the other official typhoon forecast agencies.The landfall points of Typhoon Lekima at Wenling,Zhejiang Province and Qingdao,Shandong Province and the landfall points of Typhoon Bailu at Pingdong,Taiwan Province and Dongshan,Fujian Province were successfully predicted by all the official typhoon forecast agencies in 2019.

关 键 词：台风 定位定强误差 路径误差 强度误差 登陆点误差 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]