中国制造业增值税的超额负担:企业异质性的视角  

The Excess Burden of Value-Added Tax on Chinese Manufacturings:A Perspective from Firm Heterogeneity

作　　者：尹恒 张子尧 孙玉坤 Yin Heng;Zhang Ziyao;Sun Yukun

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [3]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2021年第10期78-102,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873132,71673305);中国人民大学科学研究基金重大项目(2020030014)的资助。

摘　　要：超额负担是最优税收理论和税收制度设计的关键要素。本文尝试将企业异质性引入增值税的效率分析,构建一个估计企业异质环境下增值税超额负担的结构框架。采用1998-2013年中国制造业数据的估计显示,增值税多档次税率和繁多优惠政策造成企业间税率差异悬殊,超额负担很小:平均而言只相当于同期实际产出的0.94%,在经济总的效率损失中增值税的份额只有0.81%,大多数行业和分析时段增值税的超额负担基本上可以忽略。政策模拟还显示,在维持进项税率分布不变的前提下统一销项税率,增值税的超额负担不仅不会下降,反而会上升,平均损失上升到同期实际产出的1.17%。本文的这些结果表明,在短期内取消所有增值税的政策优惠、推行一致税率收益其实不是特别明显,反而可能带来较大效率损失。通过渐进方式完善中国增值税制度较为可取。This paper develops a structural framework for estimating the excess burden of value-added tax(VAT)under firm heterogeneity circumstances,which combines a new development in the estimation of the elasticity of substitution(markups),output elasticity of the production factors and firm heterogeneity(including productivity)in the empirical industrial organisation field with the traditional estimation of excess burden.Using firm-level data between 1998 and 2013 from the Chinese Industry Statistics Database,the structural model is estimated and it is found that despite the wide disparity in tax rates among industry firms due to multilevel VAT rates and various preferential policies,the excess burden of VAT in most cases is negligible:on average,it is only 0.94%of the actual output in the same period,and the VAT share in the overall efficiency loss of the economy is only 0.81%.The policy simulation also reveals that if the heterogeneity in the output tax rate is eliminated under the premise of maintaining the input tax rate distribution unchanged,the resulting VAT excess burden increases significantly and the average loss rises to 1.17%of the actual output during the same period.These results demonstrate that gain from the abolition of all tax preferences and the implementation of uniform VAT rates in China recommended by Mirrlees et al.(2011)are not particularly evident in the short term.Instead,they could lead to a risk of further efficiency loss.It is therefore preferable to improve the value-added tax system in China by means of a gradual approach.

关 键 词：增值税 税收超额负担 企业异质性 结构估计 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F424