制度优势、货币政策协调与财政拉动效应  

Institutional Advantage,Monetary Policy Accommodation and the Crowding-in Effect of Fiscal Policy

作　　者：李戎 刘力菲[2] LI Rong;LIU Li-fei(China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2021年第10期20-38,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目重大项目“经济双循环系统下的货币政策与财政政策协调配合研究”(批准号20&ZD104)。

摘　　要：作为宏观调控的两大支柱,货币政策与财政政策的协调和博弈一直是各界关注的焦点。本文将财政与货币政策共同纳入结构性向量自回归模型中,通过同时施加短期和长期识别假设,分析货币政策对财政政策冲击的响应。研究发现,在财政冲击发生的同时,广义货币供应量M2的增长率显著提高,表明货币当局在财政政策扩张时采取了宽松货币的协调配合的策略。依据上述实证发现,本文对动态随机一般均衡模型加以改进,研究中国货币政策的协调配合对财政政策效果的影响。分析表明,货币政策的协调配合能够显著提升财政政策的经济刺激效果,产生财政拉动效应。这一结论从制度优势的角度对文献中发现的财政拉动效应的经验事实给出了一个符合中国国情的理论解释,也为积极财政政策提质增效的实现路径提供了政策参考。本文建议在政策制定过程中充分利用中国制度优势,协调不同部门的政策目标,通过发挥财政和货币政策的联动作用,增强政策效果,保障经济高质量发展。As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and game between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.This paper puts the fiscal and monetary policies together into the structural vector autoregressive model,then analyzes the response of monetary policy to government spending shock by adopting short-term and long-term identification assumptions.Empirical results reveal that when the fiscal shock occurs,the growth rate of money supply(M2)increases significantly,indicating that monetary authority looses monetary policy to accommodate fiscal policy expansion.Second,this paper introduce the above empirical findings into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the effectiveness of fiscal policy under monetary policy accommodation.The result shows that the interactions of fiscal and monetary policies can amplify the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus,and the magnitude of fiscal spending multiplier.This paper gives a theoretical explanation of the large fiscal multiplier in China found by existing empirical research,from the perspective of fiscal-monetary policy coordination.Our study suggests to use the institutional advantage of China to coordinate policy goals of different ministrations.By coordinating fiscal and monetary policies,the government could enhance the effectiveness of policies to ensure high quality economic development.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 货币与财政协调 财政乘数 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]