人工智能技术应用与全球价值链竞争  

The Application of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Global Value Chains Competition

作　　者：何宇 陈珍珍 张建华[2] HE Yu;CHEN Zhen-zhen;ZHANG Jian-hua(College of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2021年第10期117-135,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“推动现代服务业同先进制造业深度融合研究”(批准号21AZD018);国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于整体性治理的长江经济带科学中心网络构建研究”(批准号19BGL208)。

摘　　要：以人工智能为代表的新一轮科技革命正在引发全球范围内的社会生产力变革和全球价值链重构。人工智能技术对全球价值链分工的微观作用机制,以及在全球价值链分工过程中,人工智能技术冲击对发展中国家和发达国家会造成怎样的差异化影响,鲜有文献对此研究。本文将人工智能技术应用纳入多国—多阶段全球价值链竞争模型中,使用全球16个主要经济体的数据对模型进行参数校准和数值分析。研究发现:受到人工智能技术冲击后,发展中国家不仅更加难以在全球价值链上游阶段实现升级,甚至在其原本具有全球价值链分工比较优势的下游阶段也受到发达国家产业回流的不利冲击;但发展中国家仍然可以通过创新激励政策鼓励创新资本投资,以及通过专业化技术培训促进劳动与智能化技术适配,抢抓人工智能技术发展的历史机遇,提高经济发展的韧性。本文为中国应对人工智能技术挑战、提升中国产业链发展韧性和产业链供应链现代化水平、重塑国际合作和竞争新优势提供了一定的政策启示。A new round of scientific and technical revolution represented by artificial intelligence is triggering changes in social productivity and the restructuring of global value chains.However,the micro mechanism of artificial intelligence technology on the global value chains specialization and the differential impacts of artificial intelligence technology on the developing and developed countries in the global value chains specialization are rarely mentioned in the existing literature.This study incorporates the application of artificial intelligence technology into the multi-country-multi-stage global value chains competition model,and uses data from 16 major global economies to conduct parameter calibration and numerical simulation analysis.The results show that under the impact of artificial intelligence technology,not only is it more difficult for developing countries to achieve upgrades in the upstream stage of global value chains,but also even at the downstream stage where they originally had comparative advantage are adversely affected by the return of industries from developed countries.However,developing countries can still promote innovation governance policies that encourage innovation capital investment and the adaptability of labor and intelligent technology through specialized technical training to seize the historical opportunities in the development of artificial intelligence technology and improve the resilience of the economy under the impact of artificial intelligence technology.Therefore,the findings provide policy implications for China’s response to the challenges of artificial intelligence technology,improving China’s industrial chain development resilience and the modernized level of industrial chain and supply chain,and reshaping new advantages in international cooperation and competition.

关 键 词：人工智能 全球价值链 资本替代劳动 创新资本 技能匹配 

分 类 号：F420[经济管理—产业经济]