因城施策背景下住房限购政策的有效性和异质性——基于RDiT方法的实证分析  

Effectiveness and Heterogeneity of Housing Purchase Restriction Policies in the Context of“Different Policies for Different Cities”:An Empirical Analysis Based on RDiT

作　　者：邵磊 秦韶聪 任强 SHAO Lei;QIN Shao-cong;REN Qiang

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2021年第11期117-128,共12页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“地方公共服务均等化的资本化效应和福利再分配研究——以基础教育为例”(项目编号:71804208);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金和中央财经大学科研创新团队支持计划“地方公共服务资本化价值捕获的长效机制研究”;中央财经大学研究生科研创新基金“政府土地财政依赖度与土地出让行为研究”(项目编号:20182Y001)。

摘　　要：2008年金融危机之后我国房价迎来一轮暴涨,对此,我国政府出台了一系列房价调控政策,其中,实施最早、最具代表性的需求侧调控政策就是住房限购。第二轮住房限购于2016年开启,与第一轮限购相比,无论在时间节点还是具体措施上都体现出因城施策的特征。笔者将因城施策背景下实行第二轮住房限购政策的25个城市作为样本城市,采用时间断点回归(RDiT)方法从有效性和异质性两个角度对第二轮住房限购政策进行评估。结果表明限购政策有效降低了房价增速。市场异质性方面,新房市场和中等面积住房市场的有效性最强。措施异质性方面,全域、存量式、限二手房、限外地人口、低可持有套数等措施是有效的。作者基于措施异质性构建的限购综合强度越高,政策有效性越强。城市异质性方面,中部城市以及土地财政依赖度高的城市房价增速下降最明显。After the 2008 financial crisis,house price in China experienced rapid growth.In response,the Chinese government issued a series of price control policies.Among them,the earliest and most representative demand-side control policy was the housing purchase restriction(HPR).The second round HPR was initiated in 2016,which reflected the characteristic of“different policies for different cities”(DPDC)both in terms of time points and measures compared with the first round.In this paper,using the sample of 25 cities that implement the second round HPR under the background of DPDC,the RDiT method is adopted to evaluate HPR from the perspectives of effectiveness and heterogeneity.The results show that the HPR has effectively slowed the growth of house price.In terms of market heterogeneity,new and medium-size housing markets are the most effective;in terms of measure heterogeneity,HPRs applying to the entire area,housing stock,immigrants,second-hand purchases and with tighter restrictions on the numbers of units are effective.The higher the comprehensive HPR index is,the more effective the policy will be.In terms of city heterogeneity,cities in central China and those with high dependency on land finance are observed the largest declines in the house price growth rate.

关 键 词：因城施策 限购 房价 断点回归 土地财政 

分 类 号：F293.31[经济管理—国民经济]