中国跨境电商出口影响因素及潜力研究  

Research on Influencing Factors and Potential of China's Cross-Border E-Commerce Export

作　　者：郑春芳[1] 张艳秋[1] Zheng Chunfang;Zhang Yanqiu

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学

出　　处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》2021年第4期63-72,共10页Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

基　　金：北京联合大学“人才强校优选计划”百杰人才项目“跨境电商零售进口增值税的征管模式研究”(BPHR2019CS02);2020年北京高等教育本科教学改革创新项目“新商科数据思维和量化分析能力培养体系创新研究”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文采用拓展的贸易引力模型对中国跨境电商出口的影响因素及潜力进行了实证分析,结果显示:与传统国际贸易相同,贸易两国的经济规模与中国跨境电商出口规模正相关,但与传统国际贸易相反,贸易两国间距离不再是中国跨境电商出口的阻力;进口国互联网普及率越高,越能促进中国对其跨境电商出口;进口国加入"一带一路"倡议,有利于中国对其跨境电商出口。因此,建议进一步提高对"一带一路"沿线国家的ICT领域投资,并加大海外仓布局和建设,提升跨境电商物流服务水平。另外,德国和美国一直是中国跨境电商出口潜力巨大型市场,俄罗斯快速发展为中国跨境电商出口潜力巨大型市场,建议予以重点关注;日本和韩国的潜力整体上升很快且均签署了RCEP,建议予以密切关注。By using the expanded trade gravity model, this paper conducts empirical research on the influencing factors and potential of China’s cross-border e-commerce export. The results show that as with conventional international trade, the economic scale of trading partners shares a positive correlation with the export volume of China’s cross-border e-commerce. However, in contrast with conventional international trade, the distance between trading partners is no longer an impediment to China’ cross-border e-commerce export. The growth of internet availability rate in importing states is conducive to China’s cross-border e-commerce export to them, and the accession of importing states to the Belt and Road Initiative will help bolster their cross-border e-commerce export to China. Therefore, it is suggested that we continue to increase investment in ICT fields of countries along the Belt and Road, strengthen efforts to plan and build overseas warehouses, and improve the level of cross-border e-commerce logistics. In addition, Germany and America have remained potentially huge markets for China’s cross-border e-commerce export;Russia is quickly becoming a potentially huge market for China’s cross-border e-commerce export, which deserves our special attention;Japan and Korea, with their potential on a rapid rise, have signed the RECP, which deserves our close attention.

关 键 词：贸易引力模型 跨境电商 出口潜力 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济]