重大灾害冲击、政府救助行为与保险需求  

Impact of Major Disaster, Government Bailout and Insurance Demand

作　　者：李红 王新军[2] LI Hong;WANG Xin-jun

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院金融学院,烟台264005 [2]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《金融论坛》2021年第10期41-49,共9页Finance Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国老年人长期护理与医疗保障体系改革研究”(15BJY183);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR202103080279)的资助。

摘　　要：本文选取非典时期全国208个城市416组数据,对非典疫情与商业健康保险需求的关系进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)针对保险需求不足的问题,利用保费补贴来补救的方法是可行的。(2)证实了人们在灾前灾后对风险发生的主观概率呈先低估后高估的特点,同时证明了最优承保水平与人们对灾害风险可能发生的主观概率之间存在正相关关系。(3)重大灾害事件发生之前,公众对政府灾后救助的预期会对灾前保险购买需求产生挤出效应,但需要满足两个重要前提:保险公司公平定价以及个人绝对风险厌恶递减。This paper selects 416 sets of data of 208 cities across the country in the period of SARS to conduct an empirical research on the relationship between the impact of major disasters and the demand for commercial health insurance.The study indicates that,(1) It is feasible to use premium subsidies to deal with the problem of insufficient insurance demand;(2) the public’s subjective probability of risk occurrence before and after the disaster shows a characteristic of underestimation at first and then overestimation, and there is a positive correlation between optimal underwriting level and public’s subjective probability of disaster risk;(3) before a major disaster event, the public’s expectation for government post-disaster bailout has a crowding-out effect on the purchase demand of pre-disaster insurance, but there are two important premises including the fair pricing by insurance companies and the decrease in personal absolute risk aversion.

关 键 词：重大灾害冲击 保险需求 保费补贴 政府救助 

分 类 号：G22[文化科学]