产业结构高级化的演化与度量  

The Evolution and Measurement of the Industrial Structure Upgrade

作　　者：赵国庆[1] 沈冰阳 Zhao Guoqing;Shen Bingyang(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2021年第3期36-55,共20页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学2019年度“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”的资助。

摘　　要：本文对Herrendorf等的产业结构转型基准模型进行拓展,首先,给出产业结构高级化的理论演化路径及稳定状态下产业结构分布的标准结构;其次,考虑度量指标的时变性和异质性,提出用产业份额的分布向量与标准结构的向量内积度量产业结构高级化程度;最后,基于这一指标对世界主要经济体产业结构高级化程度进行测算。本文的理论与实证分析表明,随着我国经济的高速增长,我国农业资本产出弹性将是影响我国产业结构高级化发展的主要因素。因此,加大引导资本流向农业,提高农业现代化和资本化水平,将有助于我国产业结构的进一步升级。This paper expands the benchmark model of industrial structure transformation,which is proposed by Herrendorf and other researchers.First,it gives a theoretical evolution path of industrial structure upgrade and the standard structure of industrial structure distribution under a stable state;Second,it considers the time-variability and heterogeneity of measure⁃ment indicators and proposes using the vector inner product of industrial distribution vector and industrial standard structure to measure the degree of industrial structure upgrade;Finally,on the basis of the dynamic indicators proposed above,this paper measures the degree of industri⁃al structure upgrade of the major economies in the world.The theoretical and empirical analysis shows that,with the rapid growth of China's economy,China's agricultural capital output elas⁃ticity will be the main factor restricting the development of China's industrial structure upgrade.Therefore,it will be helpful for the further upgrading of China's industrial structure to guide capital flow to agriculture and improve the level of agricultural modernization and capital⁃ization.

关 键 词：产业结构 经济增长 资本产出弹性 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]