基于事件链理论的工艺危害事件发生概率研究  

Research on Accident Probability in Process Risk Assessment Based on Accident Chain Theory

作　　者：江锋 梁开武[1] 廖凯 王立静 陈星宇 张思琪 王茂林 JIANG Feng;LIANG Kaiwu;LIAO Kai;WANG Lijing;CHEN Xingyu;ZHANG Siqi;WANG Maolin(School of Safety Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology Chongqing 401331)

机构地区：[1]重庆科技学院安全工程学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2021年第11期10-14,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：重庆科技学院研究生科技创新计划项目(YKJCX1920711)。

摘　　要：现有的工艺危害分析方法仅从事件独立发生的角度进行风险评估,其分析结果难免与实际情况有所偏差。拟将事件链引入工艺危害分析,即依据其因果关系,将多种工艺危害事件作为事件链,映射为贝叶斯网络后计算出衍生事件的发生概率,并通过实例印证了该计算方法的可行性,对工艺危害分析的定量化具有一定意义。The existing process hazard analysis methods only conduct risk assessment from the perspective of independent occurrence of events,and their analysis results will inevitably deviate from the actual situation.This article intends to introduce the event chain into the process hazard analysis,that is,according to its causal relationship,a variety of process hazard events are taken as the event chain,mapped to the Bayesian network,and then the probability of occurrence of derivative events is calculated.Also the feasibility of the calculation method is verified by an example,which has certain significance for the quantification of process hazard analysis.

关 键 词：工艺危害分析 事件链 HAZOP分析法 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]