基于手机信令数据的城市轨道交通线网建设时序决策支持模型  

A Decision Support Model of Urban Rail Transit Network Construction Sequence Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data

作　　者：刘思涵[1] 林诗佳 张竹君 钮心毅[2] LIU Sihan;LIN Shijia;ZHANG Zhujun;NIU Xinyi

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 [2]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,自然资源部国土空间智能规划技术重点实验室

出　　处：《西部人居环境学刊》2021年第5期113-120,共8页Journal of Human Settlements in West China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51878457)。

摘　　要：针对传统方法缺少对乘客的实际活动轨迹和出行需求进行量化的难点,研究基于乘客实际站外全程轨迹,提出了通过测度城市轨道交通站点服务的供需失衡程度来评价线网建设时序的决策支持模型。模型以手机信令数据识别出的乘客进站前地面停留地作为站点的实际服务范围,以等效路阻模型测算站点的理论服务范围,并将二者的差异作为供需不匹配的区域。建立总溢出距离和信息熵两个指标评价体系,用以评价建设时序。通过杭州市2号线西段建成前后的手机信令数据对模型进行了检验。检验表明,模型能较好度量供需不匹配程度,评估建设需求的迫切性,能支持杭州城市轨道交通线网建设时序预测。本研究采用了集成大数据与传统交通模型框架,提出了具有预测性和实证性的城市轨道交通线网建设时序决策支持模型。Under the background that the construction of urban rail transit has been carried out vigorously in big cities,most big cities already have established several main lines,and the focus of urban rail transit construction has shifted from single line to network.Therefore,the sequence of network construction has become a key problem in practice.In view of the difficulty of traditional methods in quantifying the actual activity trajectory and travel demand of passengers,this paper uses mobile phone signaling data to identify urban rail transit passengers and their whole process activity trajectory outside the station,and establishes a decision support model of urban rail transit network construction sequence based on the actual trip distribution of passengers.On the basis of the urban rail transit network plan,the model provides decision support for the short-term construction sequence.The modeling process follows three steps of build-verification-prediction,this model consists of three sub-models.The first sub-model calculates the theoretical service area of the station.This submodel improves the equivalent traffic impedance model based on time accessibility consistency by using the Internet map to calculate the operation efficiency of vehicles and the choice of passengers.The second sub-model calculates the actual service area of the station.In order to identify passengers from mobile phone signaling data,LAC encoded data of underground stations is used to accurately distinguish passengers from mobile users,so as to identify the complete travel trajectory of passengers.This paper presents a reliable identification algorithm and parameter values tested by practice for actual service area of the station by taking the measured spatial distribution of ground stop points before passengers enter the station.The third sub-model is the evaluation index system.The part of the actual service area beyond the theoretical service area of the station is regarded as the overf low passengers.Based on the mismatch between supply an

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 建设时序 手机信令数据 等效路阻模型 信息熵 

分 类 号：TU984.191[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]