长株潭核心区土地利用时空演化特征分析  

An Analysis on Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Land Use in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Core Area

作　　者：汤放华[1] 刘耿 张鸿辉 TANG Fanghua;LIU Geng;ZHANG Honghui(Architecture and City Planning School of Hunan City University,Yiyang 413000,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;Guangdong Guodi Land Planning Science Technology Co.Ltd.,Guangzhou 510650,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南城市学院建筑与城市规划学院 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院 [3]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院 [4]广东国地规划科技股份有限公司

出　　处：《城市与区域规划研究》2021年第1期67-81,共15页Journal of Urban and Regional Planning

基　　金：国家自然基金面上项目“中国欠发达地区城市群建构中的新区域主义:以长株潭城市群为例”(41371182);国家自然科学基金面上项目“耦合多智能体系统与深度学习算法的城市开发边界精细模拟研究”(41871318);广东省国土空间规划“一张图”建设关键技术研究项目(GDZRZYKJ2020007);羊城创新创业领军人才支持计划(2019016)。

摘　　要：文章利用Landsat影像数据、土地利用数据、地理国情普查数据,对长株潭核心区1990~2015年的土地利用时空演化进行分析。结果表明:土地利用变化方面,1990~2015年,长株潭核心区的土地类型演化主要体现在耕地、园林地向建设用地的转化,草地、水域、未利用地向其他类型用地的转化较弱,且历年的用地面积变化不明显。长株潭核心区的建设用地面积占比从1990年的3.68%增加到2015年的14.54%,各区县的建设用地扩展强度逐步增强,且建设用地面积和占比也随着时间的推移呈增加趋势。景观格局变化方面,各类型用地的景观斑块在人为干扰下分离趋势加强,景观形状趋于复杂。耕地的景观格局受城市建设影响最严重,最大斑块指数明显减少,斑块破碎化程度逐渐加强,而建设用地的最大斑块指数逐步上升,其用地扩展成连片趋势。对土地利用变化从经济、人口、政策三个方面进行了驱动因素分析,通过线性回归的方法,分别量化了这三个驱动因素对建成区面积的影响。文章在时空演化分析的基础上利用元胞自动机的方法对2020年建设用地空间布局进行模拟,模拟结果表明,建设用地的扩展以紧邻已有建设用地在条件合适的区域呈外延式扩展,建设用地的整体形态呈成片趋势,模拟结果可为后续规划建设提供参考和对照。Using the Landsat remote sensing images,land use data and geographical conditions census data,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution of land use in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan core area from 1990 to 2015 and finds out the following results.In terms of changes in land use,Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan core area is mainly characterized by the conversion of arable land and park land into construction land,with less change in grassland,water area and unused land,and an unobvious change in the area of land use.In the core area,construction land increased from 3.68%in 1990 to 14.54%in 2015.As time goes on,the construction land in 15 counties grows at an increasing speed,and the construction land area and its proportion shows a rising trend.In terms of changes in landscape pattern,the landscape patches of different types of land use are separated due to human activities,and the landscape shape becomes more complex.Affected heavily by urban construction,the landscape pattern of arable land becomes gradually fragmentized.In contrast,the largest patch index of construction land is gradually rising,and the construction land is going to be contiguous.In addition,the paper explores the driving factors of land use changes from the three aspects of economy,population and policy,and quantifies the influence of the three driving factors on the built-up area by using the linear regression method.On the basis of the analysis of spatio-temporal evolution,it simulates the spatial layout of construction land in 2020 by the cellular automata method.The results show that the expansion of construction land is adjacent to the existing construction land,which is an overall trend.These simulation results can provide reference and contrast for future planning.

关 键 词：土地利用 时空演化 驱动因素 模拟 长株潭核心区 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]